Siarhiej Pieliasa spoke with the Ambassador of Poland to Belarus in 2010-2015 Leszek Szerepka about Belarusian speakers in Belarus, the CEC website and Russia’s plans to invade Belarus.
Siarhiej Pieliasa: Before coming to Belarus, you were the First Secretary of the Polish Embassy in Moscow and you know Russia very well. Does it perceive Belarus seriously?
Leszek Szerepka: I believe Belarus is for Russia a kind of younger brother, who should be treated with a large dose of patience and forbearance. Belarus has a special geopolitical location, its importance for Russia is very big, it cannot ignore Belarus.
In recent weeks, the Russian media renewed its attack on Belarus — first came an attack on independent historians, then on the authorities. How do you perceive the next round of these attacks?
I do not know, if you can call it an attack — it is a change in the information field: Russia strives for more influence on the policy of Belarus. In 2014 the situation in the east of Poland changed diametrically. We understand the importance of what is happening in Ukraine, since it defines the events in the entire former Soviet Union. We see that the Kremlin leadership wants greater control over the policies of their neighbors.
Recently, the number of options of the Belarusian president has narrowed considerably. This attack or any manifestation of criticism from the Russian media against Belarus indicate an attempt to further narrow Lukashenka’s field of action.
Of late, expert opinions became divided. Half of them believe that Lukashenka is quite independent in his decisions: he did not recognize the Crimea and is trying to maneuver in the oil and gas issues with Russia. The other half says that Lukashenka is Kremlin’s puppet, who deals in Belarusian independence. Who is right?
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. The question here is in what areas there is a possibility of action for Lukashenka.
What can Lukashenka afford today?
I believe that in the strategic issues he can afford relations with the West, in military affairs his maneuvers are very limited, he has a large field of action in domestic policy, because stability in Belarus is important for Moscow. When Lukashenka’s actions continue in the direction of preserving stability, they do not pose a threat to Moscow.
Recently, many scares Belarusians repetition of the Ukrainian scenario. Perhaps Putin will need a small victorious war to elections in 2018. How realistic from your point of view, such a radical change of attitude towards Belarus, and the annexation of Belarus by taking total control?
I do not think that such a decision was made on the eve of elections in Russia. But this issue depends on the behavior of Lukashenka, the development of the situation in Europe. If this development is not in accordance with the way Russia wants, the Kremlin will need some success — the annexation of Belarus could become such a success that can be achieved with small means.
What is the importance of the Belarusian language in maintaining the independence of Belarus?
I believe it is crucial — it is one of the factors that determines the Belarusian national consciousness. Without it, it will be very difficult to maintain sovereignty and identity in our region in the current geopolitical situation.
After events in Ukraine, many say that the language is not important: many Russian speakers took to Maidan, many volunteers speak Russian in the front…
I believe the situation in Ukraine is different from that of Belarus — Ukrainian national consciousness is much more developed than the Belarusian one. Ukrainians have their own Piedmont — Galicia in the west, with a strong national consciousness. Belarusians do not have it, for a long time you have been under very strong influence of Russia. For a long time the Russian language has been a form of social advance for many people. In rural areas, they speak Belarusian, after moving into the city — they have to switch to Russian. And this is very dangerous, as the national identity can get melted the sea of Russian.
We see that the Russian and the Belarusian languages are not treated in Belarus equally: many ministries, agencies, the CEC did not care to keep their sites in two languages. This indicates that they underestimate the role of Belarusian. In my opinion, ethnic Belarusians who use the Belarusian language are treated as a minority in their own country.
