During the International Forum in Beijing, where Xi Jinping hosted Vladimir Putin, among other leaders, it was apparent that Russia is gradually relinquishing its position to China, its closest ally.
The third international Forum of the “One Belt – One Road” Initiative took place in Beijing on October 17-18. A decade ago, Xi Jinping, the current Chinese leader, announced the launch of the largest infrastructure project ever. The project aimed to expand and connect the infrastructure of the Middle Kingdom with countries in Central Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. Beijing had already planned to spend trillions of dollars on these projects.
The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have impacted the geopolitical situation, which has left the Chinese rulers slightly confused. However, the current Forum’s primary objective is to renew global communication and trade projects and explore ways to reorganize the existing international order. During the gathering in Beijing, representatives from the Global South were present along with the guest of honor, Vladimir Putin. The main goal of this gathering was to reduce the influence and role of the United States as a global leader in the near future.
Experts have reported that the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, visited his old pal Xi Jinping with high expectations. The primary purpose of the visit was to gain economic and diplomatic support in the face of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the constantly expanding Western sanctions. Putin’s hopes were made clear by the composition of the Russian delegation, which included the Deputy Prime Ministers for energy and technology, the Minister of Finance, the Heads of energy giants Gazprom and Rosneft, the President of the Central Bank, and the Head of the largest Russian bank, Sberbank. Economists in Russia expressed their belief that Beijing will activate the Power of Siberia II gas pipeline, which would be a notable boost for the Russian economy.
Russia considers this project necessary, enabling the country to redirect some of its lost raw material exports from Europe to China, thereby increasing the much-desired income. The Kremlin’s objective is to secure large commodity contracts and agreements on the exchange of cutting-edge technologies. However, the Russian leader has only received a slight push for his ambitions and nothing more.
– This time, everything was difficult… this way, Andrei Kolesnikov, a prominent commentator at Kommersant newspaper, described the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s visit to China.
Vladimir Putin was given an honorable reception as he was an esteemed guest. He engaged in a conversation with Xi Jinping that lasted more than three hours. They both emphasized the significance of their friendship and alliance, especially amid increasing global instability, for which they blamed the United States. Additionally, the Beijing forum provided Putin with a platform for direct meetings with numerous international leaders. He met not only with leaders of the countries of the Global South, who were hostile to the USA but also with Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, a member state of the European Union. This last meeting had significant propaganda value as it showed cracks in the Western isolation of Putin, who has been accused of crimes against humanity.
The efforts to enable the Power of Siberia II gas pipeline failed, but no specific reasons were given. Having learned from the European Union’s experience, China does not want to become overly dependent on Russian raw material supplies. Furthermore, China is aware of Russia’s pricing and sees no need to rush into agreements. The weaker Russia becomes, the easier it will be for China to negotiate better prices.
During a meeting in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his strong support for the Chinese initiative “One Belt – One Road.” This move is seen as a competition to the Eurasian Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, previously backed by the Kremlin. It was also evident that Russia was gradually losing its influence over Central Asia to China. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, for instance, was able to secure a contract to supply Kazakh oil to China, which Putin had failed to achieve. Similarly, the leader of Uzbekistan also signed specific agreements with China, indicating a shift in the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Russian politicians and industrialists have been praising the significantly increased trade volume with China, which has increased by 60% since the full-scale war broke out in Ukraine. However, China is still hesitant when it comes to importing energy resources from Russia, which is crucial for Moscow. As mentioned earlier, China is actively seeking alternative sources of energy.
Moreover, the grain agreement presented by the TASS agency cannot be considered a breakthrough. According to experts, despite Russian hopes, it will not eliminate Ukrainian grain from world markets. While the growing trade with China generates income for the Kremlin to continue the war in Ukraine and provides limited access to modern technologies, it also increases Russia’s dependence. It deepens its position as a younger brother.
The current international situation is bringing China and Russia closer together. Western media has highlighted the Forum’s anti-American stance and Beijing and Moscow’s common aspirations to end American leadership. Xi and Putin likely talked about the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East during their discussions. Beijing may want to prolong military operations in Ukraine to weaken Russia and the United States. However, these countries may have opposite approaches toward the conflict in the Middle East.
Russia has a desire for the war in the Middle East to spread throughout the entire region, as it would effectively distract the West from the Ukrainian front. At the same time, China is displeased with the notable escalation of military turmoil in this area.
In conclusion, the anniversary meeting of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative can be considered a sufficient accomplishment for China, particularly in light of its increased reliance on Russia as an ally. However, as Alexei Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center think tank in Berlin, points out, this does not imply that “Beijing can impose its will on Moscow” in any way.
– The Chinese government is expanding its reach, while Russia maintains its strength as a nuclear power. Due to the ongoing tension between China and the United States, Beijing sees Russia as a vital support system that it must uphold and strengthen, Gabuyev explains.
During Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, recordings showed that one of the officers accompanying the Russian President was carrying the “nuclear suitcase,” an essential component to request the use of atomic weapons of mass destruction. It is unclear whether this was a deliberate demonstration or a routine security measure.
Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
