American and European experts are warning that if Russia wins, it may not stop at Ukraine, but Western politicians seem to be ignoring their concerns. China is closely watching the current situation and drawing conclusions from it.
– The Netherlands should not think that it is safe because 1,500 kilometers separate us from Russia – warned the Commander of the Dutch army in an interview published just before Christmas.
General Martin Wijnen warned that Russia’s growing strength requires society to be prepared for potential problems. The current Commander of the Dutch armed forces was supported by his predecessor, Mart de Kriuft.
The Chief of Staff of the Belgian army also admits that Europe should prepare for a conflict, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius states that a war with Russia is not unlikely.
Leading military officials from Western countries are expressing concerns about a potential conflict. Experts are warning that if Ukraine is forced to make peace based on the Kremlin’s conditions, Vladimir Putin may launch an invasion of NATO member states such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and potentially Poland in a few years. It has been reported that American intelligence alerted President Joe Biden about this possibility, indicating 2028 as a potential year of attack.
Experts from well-known think tanks, such as Germany’s Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik and the American Atlantic Council, believe a similar scenario to the ongoing war in Ukraine cannot be ruled out. Experts from the Atlantic Council institution, such as Professor Andrew Michta, highlight a non-European aspect of the conflict. If Russia successfully retains the territories it has already occupied, China may view it as a sign of the West’s weakness. It could encourage the Chinese government to take more drastic measures to resolve the Taiwan issue, with potentially serious consequences.
Correct diagnosis is crucial for successful treatment. The diagnosis has been made, and the appropriate medication must be prescribed.
The analysis and warnings above suggest that Kyiv needs to be equipped with modern weapons to combat Russia as soon as possible. It includes long-range missile systems such as American ATACMS and German Taurus, F-16 fighters, artillery missiles, and other modern weapons recommended by General Valery Zaluzhny. Defeating the Russian army on Ukrainian territory may be the best way to prevent an expected conflict with Moscow. With the hands and blood of Ukrainian soldiers instead of the army troops of other NATO member states. Is there a better solution?
Meanwhile, in December, the Pentagon provided the final installment of aid to Ukraine amounting to USD 250 million. The future of further assistance is still being determined due to the US Congress’ inability to approve the Biden administration’s proposed aid package, which includes over $60 billion for Kyiv. The delay is related to disagreements within the government regarding Mexican immigrants.
While there is a lot of verbal support for Ukraine in Europe, more specific actions need to be taken. Hungary is blocking €50 billion in EU aid for Kyiv for internal motivations. This move by Budapest is a way to pressure Brussels to release funds withheld for political reasons.
Berlin is still deciding whether or not to provide Kyiv with Taurus long-range missiles. Unconfirmed sources claimed that F-16 multi-role jets would arrive in Ukraine by the end of 2023. The American Institute for the Study of War reported on this, and a video surfaced on the internet to support these claims. However, it was later discovered that the video was just an advertisement for the Ukrainian clothing company Aviatsiya Halychyny, which specializes in producing aviation clothes. The American fighter jet depicted in the ad was created by computer.
The principle established at the beginning of the war was still applicable when the West requested a commitment from the Ukrainian authorities that they would not attack Russian territories. However, as a precautionary measure, Kyiv was not provided with long-range missiles or modern aircraft.
Politicians seem to be ignoring the warnings of the military and experts regarding a potential war with Russia. While attacking NATO may seem like madness, many experts believed that Moscow’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine was equally insane. Some individuals are skeptical that Russia could arm itself to such an extent that it could launch an invasion against the stronger, better-equipped, and more numerous forces of the North Atlantic Alliance.
What guarantees does NATO have to ensure it will defend its younger members in solidarity? A survey conducted in December of last year for the weekly Stern revealed that only 17% of Germans were willing to fight for their country with weapons in their hands. Meanwhile, the percentage of people who would not do it under any circumstances was 40%. However, these proportions may change in the event of an actual conflict. I recently spoke with security experts from Poland about their trip to meet with analysts and politicians from a critical EU country. However, the group of experts was from somewhere other than Germany. The analysts shared the same concerns and conclusions as their Polish counterparts. However, the politicians argued that their electorate, accustomed to almost eighty years of peace, would neither understand a significant increase in defense spending nor a radical increase in funds to help Ukraine.
For some reason, the thought of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and his belief that he had managed to save world peace in Munich in 1938 crossed my mind. As we now know, that peace only lasted for a year.
Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
