The risk that Belarus in 2019 could face the import of inflation and devaluation processes from Russia is great. This was announced by the Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Pavel Kalaur at a press conference on December 20, TUT.BY reports.
To minimize the consequences of this situation, the National Bank plans to pursue a responsible monetary policy, and if these measures are not enough, use a wider range of instruments. According to Pavel Kalaur, a possible increase in the volatility of the ruble is a payment for insufficiently diverse exports.
As for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2019, it “will be fair,” the chairman of the National Bank noted, but did not give specific figures.
In Russia, in 2019, the rate of the local currency may significantly weaken against the dollar. This was stated by the Russian financier, host of the program “Money” on the TV channel “Dozhd” Artem Torchinsky in the commentary for Belsat.eu.
“The global economy is starting to slow down. This means a fall in oil prices, and, accordingly, the Russian ruble will gradually weaken. Plus, the introduction of sanctions is possible, which will also have a negative impact on the ruble,” he said, adding that the Belarusian currency next year will most likely move in step with the Russian ruble because of the strong integration of the economies of the two countries.
At the same time, Mr Torchinsky does not foresee catastrophic scenarios for the Russian ruble. In his opinion, the US dollar exchange rate in 2019 in Russia can fluctuate in the range of 65 to 80 Russian rubles (as of December 21, the dollar at the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is 67.37 rubles).
In turn, the Belarusian economist, the former chairman of the National Bank Stanislau Bahdankevich, in an interview with Belsat.eu, reminded that next year Belarus awaits large payments on foreign and domestic debts.
“If we are given loans (by Russia for example), and we will repay the old ones with new loans, then the rate can be stable. And if difficulties arise due to the problems that are brewing with Russia, and Russia does not finance us, does not give new loans to pay off the old ones, then a significant devaluation of the national currency is possible,” he said.
Nevertheless, Mr Bahdankevich is confident that by refinancing debts Belarus will be able to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.
