Are all Russians guilty? Is Russia a hopeless case and is forever doomed to tyranny and aggression? Is the Russian opposition a sham, a bunch of imperialists who differ from Putin only in wanting to manage the empire more effectively? Is Russia a different civilization and different people? Is Russia doomed for collapse or being dominated by China? Such questions appear less in official debates, private conversations, and internet posts in Ukraine and other countries (including Poland) since the current full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Anti-war and anti-Putin demonstration by Russian expatriates in Prague in 2022. Photo by Jan Beranek, Wikimedia Commons, CCIt is easy to understand, especially Ukrainians, who experience Russian atrocities every day, and it is hard for them to discuss the Russian question objectively. Moreover, they now fully understand how Ukrainianness has been destroyed for centuries. It is even possible to understand where the hatred, the desire to destroy Russia or at least the desire to separate itself from it with a big wall, comes from.
However, emotions are never a good advisor in politics, especially during war. Emotions cause bad policies and during a war, make shooting and planning military actions harder. Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian state has been trying to emphasize the difference between Ukraine and Russia, including their European way of waging war. You do not hear about Ukrainian war crimes; prisoners of war (including Wagner Group’s mercenaries) are treated according to all conventions, and there was no case of collateral damage caused by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which even happened to the most modern American army. You cannot deny the Ukrainian leadership being composed.
In contrast, Ukrainian society often lacks it. The recent case of enthusiasm over the internet caused by a shark eating a Russian in Egypt illustrates it well. As a result, there was even a backlash by a known, even in Poland, Oleksiy Arestovich, who strongly condemned those happy because of the Russians’ misfortune just because he was Russian. He even called weak people those who enjoyed it. He also pointed out that the man most likely escaped from Russia, and the escape of Russians is beneficial for Ukraine.
Arestovich, as it is known, is no longer an advisor to the Ukrainian president. However, his appearances on social media continue to generate millions of views, not only in Ukraine. Not only his critics (whom he has many) but also many faithful listeners did not enjoy his view about the shark attack.
At the time, Arestovich was in Brussels at a congress of the Russian opposition. Not all of it was present, but there were, for example, Mikhail Khodorkovsky or the very famous in the Russian-speaking world human rights activist Mark Feygin. The congress was initiated by a group of Lithuanian MEPs headed by former prime minister Andrius Kubilius. He is associated with the currently ruling Lithuania Homeland Union party.
During the congress, Kubilius explained why he was committed to the cause of the Russian opposition. He emphasized Lithuanians are a pragmatic nation, and he does not believe in some “eternal destiny.” The history of nations can take different turns. He revealed that he keeps explaining to Western politicians that Russia does not need to be a hopeless case as he realized such a view starts to dominate.
Paradoxically, however, he argues such an approach to the Russian nations is in the interest of Ukraine and Central Europe. He believes that if such thinking persists, a belief will appear in the West that if nothing can be done in the Russian case, then maybe making a deal with Putin is the best, as it is impossible to hope for something better. Of course, the West, especially the United States, currently has a policy of supporting the Russian opposition, but who knows what will be in the future?
Kubilius furthermore said he keeps explaining to his Western colleagues that it was necessary to help Ukraine destroy Putin’s army and allow Ukraine to join NATO and the EU. According to him, this will be beneficial for the issue of Russian democracy. Without Ukraine, Russia will not be able to wage its aggressive and imperialist policy. After Ukraine’s victory and joining the Western organizations, the issue would be closed for Russia forever.
This is not an isolated view. Poland is also heavily supporting not only Ukraine and free Belarus but also the Russian opposition. Currently, the Congress of Russian People’s Deputies is happening in Warsaw. The Congress of Russia’s Nations was in Poland. According to unofficial information, behind the curtains, Polish diplomats a few months ago were motivating Russian oppositionists to higher activity. It is not a coincidence such initiatives make the Kremlin especially nervous.
Like in the Baltic States, many Russian dissidents, artists and journalists found refuge in our country. The Polish government is aware of the need to think about a “different Russia.” If current Russia survives, even if Ukraine wins, the danger will not end, and the West can stop its engagement in promoting democracy in the East.
Talking about Russia being a hopeless case actually helps the Kremlin. Moscow promotes the idea that democracy is impossible in Russia.
Ukraine as a state, in turn, was created as a part of the Ukrainian Army Russian formations, which carry out operations inside Russia. With the current regime, Ukraine does not want to talk at all and fully delegitimizes it. It tries to create a “Different Russia.” Armed for it.
Of course, neither Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, nor even NATO are unable to plan Russia’s future. It is uncertain if Russia will survive as a whole, which even some emigré Russian oppositionists quietly confirm. It is unknown if even a democratic Russia will be committed to peaceful and democratic policy; Russian society seems to be still passive or fully intimidated. If the change at the top happens, it might be a change for another tyrant or tyrants fighting each other.
However, it should be pointed out that in recent months a bunch of common positions, documents and statements of various branches of the Russian opposition appeared. Those supported Ukrainian victory, its territorial integrity, punishing war criminals, paying the reparations and future Russian cooperation with the West.
They treat Putin’s regime as something alien which needs to be exiled. Before 2022, the main figures of the Russian opposition, such as Aleksei Navalny, did not present such unambiguous views and a programe.
As Feygin said in Brussels – even if only 10% of Russian citizens were against Putin, those are still millions of people who deserve normal life, even if only in a part of the Russian territory. One thing is certain, if Ukrainians start living normally and peacefully, it will resonate in Russia.
Marcin Herman, belsat.eu
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
