Year forecast: coast is clear

Political analysts Valer Karbalevich and Andrey Yahorau, director of the Centre for European Transformation, have shared their political forecastings with Belsat TV.
Domestic stability
It is only at elections when political activities begin to arouse. The next presidential elections are to be held in 2015; the latest parliamentary polls in September, 2012 were boycotted or lost by the Belarusian opposition. The 2014 elections of local councillors are too insignificant to make preparations in advance.
Both Karbalevich and Yahorau are agreed on the point that there is no sense expecting any change on the Belarusian political stage: pressure on civil activists and all discontented people is likely to be continued. At the same time, opposition activists may start combining their forces, Andrey Yahorau says. In his opinion, if the opposition fails to unite in an alliance, Lukashenka will remain the only serious political player.
External stability
No drastic changes are expected on two main political lines. Some political prisoners may be released in 2013 but deteriorated relations with the European Union will not improve, the experts believe. Thus, Russia seems to be the onle resort for Lukashenka’s regime.
“Russia will keep on backing the Belarusian economy because it has a stake in the integration into the Eurasian Union. Belarus plays a key part in forcing Ukraine into the Union. Belarus is not self-sufficient; Russia depending [on its neighbour] politically,” Karbalevich stresses.
According to the political analyst, the brotherly interdependence will result in a series of conflicts although Valer Karbalevich doubts their severity.
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