Is Russia no longer the main threat to the West?

The Munich Security Conference’s annual report includes a global threat perception index based on sociological research conducted in various countries worldwide. This Index demonstrates how much the West’s perspective on the Russian threat has shifted compared to previous years, particularly in 2022. The report raises the question of whether the Kremlin is no longer considered the primary threat to the West.

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) recently presented its annual report on global threats, concluding that Russia is no longer the main threat to the West. This report was released before the world’s largest security forum from February 16-18 this year. The conference has a long history, dating back to 1963, but one of its most memorable meetings was held in 2007.

In the early 21st century, Vladimir Putin delivered a speech that some experts consider a breakthrough moment in world politics. The Russian President’s speech was aggressive, and he stated that the world could no longer be unipolar. He also claimed that US foreign policy had gone beyond its limits in all areas and that NATO had violated Russia’s guarantees in 1991 by accepting new members. As a result, Moscow began to run its independent politics. Less than ten months later, in August 2008, there was the attack on Georgia, followed by the annexation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. Finally, on February 24, 2022, there was an attack on Ukraine, which sparked a full-scale war that is still ongoing.

In this regard, can the Kremlin cease to be the primary threat? The report, titled quite pessimistically “Lose-Lose,” identifies several global crises that pose a significant threat. While Russia may no longer be the initial danger, the conflict in the Middle East and the potential escalation of violence in the Indo-Pacific region are also concerning. Additionally, the American campaign before the November presidential elections already affects the international situation. It could become a severe strength test for the European Union if Donald Trump wins.

The Munich Security Index is an annual report that indicates global threat perception. It is based on sociological research conducted in different countries worldwide. The Index is an excellent tool for tracking changes in the West’s attitude toward the Russian threat, especially in 2022. Germany is a prime example of this shift in mindset. The latest Index shows Russia ranks only 7th as a danger to Germany. The Germans are most worried about mass migration due to wars and climate change, radical Islamic terrorism, and cyber-attacks. France and Italy share similar concerns, with Russia ranking 12th as a threat to Italy. The United States is relatively more concerned about Russia, ranking fourth on the Index. China ranks third, while polarization of society and cyberattacks rank second and first.

Great Britain and Japan view Russia as the biggest threat. This view is also shared by Poland and other Central and Northeastern European countries, which were not included in the Index. However, China, India, and South Africa perceive Russia differently, seeing Moscow as an ally rather than a threat.

The Munich Index has highlighted a concerning trend known as war fatigue. This trend is characterized by decreased public support among G7 countries for further assistance to Ukraine, such as heavy weapons or anti-Russian sanctions. However, the report’s authors emphasize that more than the current aid level is needed to ensure victory for Ukraine. Therefore, they are appealing to leaders in the US and EU to counteract this trend and provide more help to Kyiv. Hopefully, this appeal will be effective and bring a positive change.

Three weeks before this year’s conference, In an article published in the weekly Handelsblatt, Wolfgang Ischinger, the former Head of the MSC, highlighted the growing geopolitical risks worldwide and criticized the EU’s lack of action as negligence. Ischinger identified the war in Ukraine as the primary threat to global security but also mentioned other hotspots contributing to the situation, such as the Houthi rebels attacking ships in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and North Korea. He stressed that the situation demands urgent attention and action from world leaders.

The Kremlin positively welcomed this year’s Munich Security Conference report. The Russian authorities, uncertain about the future a year ago, are now more confident and taking action, not just on the Ukrainian front. It was visible after Vladimir Putin’s recent interview, or rather performance, in front of Carlson Tucker. In his interview, Putin made several false statements, which Tucker blindly accepted with a foolish smile. American viewers of the Tucker Platform may also believe these lies. Even though the interview was long, shorter clips will attempt to convince Americans that it is not in their best interest to get involved in European conflicts and that reaching an agreement with Russia is better.

During his annual press conference, Sergei Lavrov, the Head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, outlined the conditions for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. He compared the situation in Ukraine to that of Afghanistan and accused the West of ignoring Russia’s concerns, which he believes caused the conflict. Experts suggest that Lavrov referred to the safety guarantee draft agreements presented to the US in December 2021.

 It is important to remember that Moscow had demanded various conditions, including the disarmament of Ukraine, the withdrawal of allied troops deployed in new territories of NATO member states adopted after May 1997, no expansion of NATO, especially to the East, and refraining from actions that Russia deemed harmful to its security. However, these conditions were rejected, and two months later, Putin attacked Ukraine. If Kyiv were forced to negotiate a compromise with Russia now, it would probably end similarly, not in two months, but in a few years. This time, it would not be in Ukraine.

All experts agree that to counteract Russian aggression, Ukraine must be armed, and the defense negligence of some EU countries must be rebuilt, as Ischinger correctly stated.

The announcement by Donald Trump that he would not defend NATO member countries, failing to spend 2% of their GDP on defense, has caused anger in Brussels, Berlin, and other capitals. Despite Germany’s promise to increase its defense spending, it has consistently fallen short of 2%, reaching only 1.3%. Despite disappointing results from the Munich Security Index, Trump’s statement and the growing Russian threat may finally encourage Germany and other countries to increase their defense budgets.

Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu

Translated by PEV