I am afraid of the Greeks

Laocoon, a priest, warned the inhabitants of Troy with the words “Timeo Danaos et dona ferentes,” meaning “I am afraid of the Greeks, even when they bring gifts.” The Greeks had been besieging Troy for ten years and had built a wooden horse, which they left outside the city, pretending they had given up on the conquest. Laocoon tried to warn the Trojans about the Greeks’ deceitful intentions, but they did not listen, probably tired of the conflict, which deprived them of significant income, too. As we know, the Trojans’ failure to heed Laocoon’s warning led to their defeat.

The recent report by Bloomberg, citing unofficial sources close to the Kremlin, reminded me of the history of the Trojan War. According to the report, Vladimir Putin is open to dialogue with the West regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine. The discussion will include future security measures for Kyiv.

The Bloomberg agency’s interlocutors allegedly assured journalists that Moscow could give up its demand for a neutral status for Ukraine. The Kremlin may consider not opposing Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance if the country recognizes Russian control over the occupied territories, which include Crimea and the four regions annexed as a result of so-called referendums, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

In response to Bloomberg’s revelations, Kremlin press Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia is determined to achieve its special military operation goals. However, they would prefer diplomacy rather than war to accomplish these goals. Other representatives of the Russian authorities maintain that their objectives of demilitarization, denazification, and ensuring the neutral status of Ukraine remain unchanged.

Bloomberg’s information is not the only news of this nature. Recent reports by The New York Times reveal that since at least September 2023, various mediators have been sending signals to the West that Putin is willing to negotiate a ceasefire that would freeze the war in Ukraine at its current position. Now, for the first time, news of possible compromises has surfaced. The question is – why was it sent and to whom?

Russia is holding its presidential elections soon, and it’s widely believed that Putin will win. However, the special operation that helped increase his popularity two years ago is losing its effectiveness gradually. According to a survey by the Russian Field Center, half of the Russians would like to end the war this year, and only 6 percent believe that victory is a necessary condition for this. Moreover, according to research conducted by the Levada Center, the most critical event for the Russians in 2023 was not the conflict in Ukraine but the rise in prices for housing and municipal services.

The information leaked to Bloomberg was likely intended to show Russian citizens that their government is willing to compromise. But it is the “Russophobic” West and stubborn Ukrainians who are refusing. However, if Russia does not withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies, the Kremlin could present it as a successful outcome of its special operation. As for the alleged concessions, i.e., a possible promise to withdraw opposition to Ukraine’s membership in NATO, the Hungarian authorities have already proven that Moscow can count on their support in such matters several times.

In the West, Putin may be using a new tactic to win over those tired of the prolonged conflict and its consequences, similar to the inhabitants of Troy. Although he does not expect them to become the majority quickly, he hopes to deepen existing divisions through controlled leaks and hybrid activities, such as information warfare, in which social media plays a significant role. Experts warn that Russian disinformation focuses on the most sensitive social and political issues with a message that aims to influence public opinion. Energy security and rising prices are among the sensitive topics that are frequently targeted. The latter is also responsible for helping Ukraine and increasing defense spending by Alliance countries.

I gave only two examples here, but Russia effectively uses every opportunity to polarize Western societies. It is worth paying attention to this among Polish politicians!

But back to the alleged Russian goal, which is to freeze the current conflict. Fortunately, most analysts and leaders, especially those from nations near Russia, understand the danger of this situation. It’s akin to the Trojan Horse, where the city’s inhabitants welcomed the war’s end, unknowingly bringing in a wooden horse that led to their downfall. Of course, this operation would take a little longer. Though…

In an interview for Focus magazine that was unusually honest for a representative of the services, the Head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Bruno Kahl, stated that if the West does not show resistance, Putin “will have no reason not to attack NATO” because Ukraine alone “would not satisfy Russian hunger for power.”

–It would be disastrous if the use of force dominated foreign policy and if Europe surrendered to it – emphasized the head of German foreign intelligence.

On January 24, the North Atlantic Alliance started its most extensive military exercises since the end of the Cold War. While this is an important signal, the genuine guarantee of our security would be to ensure Ukraine’s victory as soon as possible.

Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu

Translated by PEV