It’s not a reduction in Sergei Shoigu and Nikolai Patrushev’s influence, but rather an effort to enhance the military capabilities and prepare for a prolonged confrontation. As Putin begins his new term, he is allocating the country’s areas of interest among oligarchic clans and power elites.
Recent political changes appear to have revolutionized the Russian system of power. According to the Constitution, the government must immediately resign after the President is sworn in for a new term. In the case of Mikhail Mishustin’s government, there were no expectations of profound transformations, including the change of the prime minister himself. Mishustin remains Prime Minister.
However, the government underwent a perhaps not profound but unexpected reorganization. The most shocking modification was Sergei Shoigu’s resignation as Minister of Defense. The new Head of the Ministry became economist Andrei Belousov.
Dark clouds have been looming over the resort for quite some time, for instance, due to the corruption scandal involving Timur Ivanov, Deputy Minister and one of Shoigu’s deputies. However, the scandal did not directly lead to the minister’s resignation. Instead, its exposure served as a precursor to expected changes typical within the Russian government.
The recent shifts in the Russian government were also not caused by fundamental dissatisfaction with how the Russian army was conducting the war in Ukraine. Compared to a year or two ago, Vladimir Putin’s army is, unfortunately, performing quite well.
It is true that Vladimir Putin would have reasons to be discontented with many issues in the army. It includes the failure of the quick war concept in 2022, embarrassing mistakes such as losing the Moskva missile cruiser or Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia, and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny. However, these are not enough solid grounds to destroy an old, trusted comrade like Shoigu. Moreover, the ministry is not responsible for everything because the command structure is complicated, and the staff or individual commands perform some decisions.
Shoigu, faithfully standing by Putin’s side from the beginning, is a man without political ambitions and capable of performing any task. In the area of personal gain, Shoigu was interested in increasing his wealth and that of his loyal clan at the expense of the ministry’s budget. It is not a disadvantage for Putin but rather acceptable behavior, an advantage of a person belonging to his inner circle. Therefore, Shoigu will not lose his influence but will have it in a different, refreshed form in a new role as Secretary of the Security Council.
He has been reassigned to the heart of the Russian government’s decision-making complex, the Security Council, which is responsible for crucial decisions regarding war, security, and foreign policy. Due to recent changes in the government, there have been related shifts. For instance, Nikolai Patrushev, another long-time ally of Putin, lost his position as Secretary of the Security Council to Shoigu. Patrushev will not disappear from the political stage, but it is not yet known what his next role will be. It may be a “retired” position with fewer responsibilities.
Balance is the key
After securing a fifth term in power, Putin ensured stability for the Russian power elite and guaranteed that nothing would change. However, each new term with Putin in the Kremlin for a quarter of a century means some reshuffling in the power elite. Putin’s task is to maintain the balance of influence between various clans, including interest groups, industry groups, business groups, and regional and ethnic coteries.
As a result, a series of modifications were initiated to satisfy all major interest groups. Currently, Putin does not need internal conflicts that could lead to risky situations, such as the one with the so-called Prigozhin mutiny last year. These transformations have a significant advantage: they prevent the creation of independent groups of influence, primarily in sensitive areas like the army or special services.
Sergei Shoigu has been a Minister for 12 years. During this time, he has built a vast network of dependencies and connections from ministerial offices to distant barracks and military units. Officers and bureaucrats are everywhere linked to Shoigu’s associates. These individuals dominated the sector of military orders from private and state companies with their personal interests, including foreign purchases. Changing the minister was aimed at revitalizing the administration and ending widespread and blunt corruption in the army.
However, despite this move, it’s important to note that corruption and arrangements between powerful clans will continue. Putin has used strategic placement to allocate areas of influence. For instance, with Andrei Belousov taking up a position in the Ministry of Defense, Denis Manturov, closely aligned with the interests of Putin’s ally Sergei Chemezov, will assume responsibility for the defense industry and technologies as Deputy Prime Minister. The new Defense Minister will have to work closely with him to fulfill substantial arms orders.
Furthermore, the son of Nikolai Patrushev, who was removed from the Security Council, Dmitry Patrushev, retained the Ministry of Agriculture and was promoted to Deputy Prime Minister. The new Minister of Energy has become Sergei Tsivilyov, who is related to Putin and close to the oligarchs in the President’s circle like Gennady Timchenko. Boris, the son of Yuri Kovalchuk, known as a banker and oligarch close to Putin, became the Head of the Accounts Chamber. The government was also joined by representatives of the younger generation of the Kremlin’s power elite, relatively younger (the generation of 40-year-olds) who until now were holding positions as Governors: Anton Alikhanov (from Kaliningrad), Roman Starovoyt, and Mikhail Degtiaryov.
The recent changes cautiously include the younger generation and individuals from regional elites in government departments. However, Putin did not opt for a revolutionary overhaul in management. Instead, he granted influence in crucial sectors of the economy to specific oligarchs within his circle. These changes are expected to trickle down in the coming months, affecting offices, regional structures, and uniformed services. Everywhere, there will be a consistent pattern of modifications: the inclusion of young and fresh talent, specifically the offspring of the elite, along with a distinct separation of interests between oligarchic and industrial groups. This model solidifies the state, reinforcing oligarchic and bureaucratic feudalism.
The Mastermind in charge of planning
Andrei Belousov, who became the new Minister of Defense, raises eyebrows due to his lack of military background. Belousov is an economist and, within the Russian elite, is seen as an intellectual, more as a figure from another world. He was part of German Gref’s circle during the early Putin era and served as Gref’s deputy in Mikhail Kasyanov’s government.
However, he is certainly not an economic liberal. He comes from a nomenclature family with a history of faithfully serving the Soviet regime. His father, Rem Belousov, was born into a lineage of ideological Bolsheviks, and his name, Rem, is an acronym that was popular in the post-revolutionary period: “Revolution, Electrification, Mir (Russian for peace), or Revolution, Engels, Marx. The father of Andrei Belousov was a co-author of economic policy during the time of Leonid Brezhnev. He was likely of interest to the Soviet services because, for some time, he traveled as a financial advisor to Laos and Vietnam. The Putin elite values these kinds of biographies.
The new Defense Minister has established a reputation as a competent, technocratic manager and an excellent planner in the Kremlin. Over the past decade, he served as the Minister of Economic Development and, for four years, as the Head of the Russian Railways Board of Directors. Consequently, he has gained valuable experience in the railway sector, a critical component of wartime and military transportation.
Belousov is a proponent of the state’s vital role in the economy. He frequently advocates for nationalization and higher taxes and is seen as continuing the legacy of Soviet planners. In his role at the Ministry of Defense, his primary responsibility will be coordinating the military’s economic support. It will involve expanding the war economy, defense industry, and logistics and ensuring the army is equipped for long-term needs. He aims to prepare the Russian military and economy for a sustained confrontation with Ukraine and the West.
Putin has previously appointed a civilian and technocrat, Anatoly Serdyukov, as the Minister of Defense. Serdyukov reformed the army before Shoigu, and although not everything worked out, he did a lot to modernize the military and lead it out of the post-Soviet stagnation and crisis. Today, however, another civilian in the army will be responsible for its support.
The army will be commanded by the general staff and Putin himself, with the help of his aides from the Security Council. After some time, we will see if this system of civilian and military dual power will work and whether a civilian placed in charge of the military ministry will be able to manage people in uniform to expand the Russian war machine.
Michał Kacewicz/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
