The debt of Belarusians to banks has grown by as much as $ 1 billion over a year. The total amount of consumer loans now exceeds $ 4.5 billion. The main reason for the rapid increase is seen in the falling inflation.
“Not everyone agrees with this, maybe not all feel it in their pocket, but the fact remains, we are now witnessing, especially over the past month, the lowest inflation for the entire time of independent Belarus. And the decrease in interest rates on loans is only natural,” says economist Vadzim Iosub.
Loan rates started decreasing last April. Right at that time the consumer lending boom started after a decade of decline. The situation was affected not only by the more favorable conditions of banks, but also by the small but growing salaries.
“On average, the population received a little more money, and this allows you to get more loans. And finally, another important factor is that there were changes in the lending process. Namely, the banks were given the right to give loans without salary certificates,” explains Mr. Yosub.
Worst case scenario
According to the National Bank, most of the borrowed money, which is slightly more than 6 billion BYN, was lent to purchase real estate. The rest, almost 6 billion BYN, for purchases and service payments. Economist Leanid Zlotnikau believes that the increase in wages is unfounded, if we consider the backdrop of industrial indicators. And in combination with the rapid growth of loans, the economy simply cannot provide an appropriate supply of goods, which will cause inflation. In this case, citizens will have to repay much more, as banks secured themselves by floating rates depending on the dollar exchange rate. With changes in external factors, it can be worse.
“If suddenly something happens to the economy, the credit repayment will stop. And the banks will fail… After all, the debt of the population in all countries, including China, the USA, Belarus, has significantly increased. It is higher than the level of 2007, which caused a big crisis in the world,” Zlotnikau said.
The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development has also warned about the consequences of lending for the economy and financial system of our country. He suggested that Belarus should reduce its credit resources. However, there have been no official statements from the National Bank about the willingness to go to such measures.
Yulia Labanava, Belsat, photo: Viktor Drachev / TASS / Forum
