Armenia has changed its foreign policy and made a 180-degree shift towards the West and away from Russia. On the other hand, Georgia is heading in the opposite direction, and its future may depend on the determination of protesting citizens on the street.
On April 19, the Armenian authorities agreed to return four border villages to Azerbaijan. These villages had been occupied by Armenia during the First Karabakh War in 1993. Returning these territories to Baku’s jurisdiction can significantly reduce tensions and build trust between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Reducing conflict between two former enemies in the southern Caucasus region is important, even if it takes years to determine borders and resolve controversial issues.
Armenia, traditionally seen as Moscow’s closest ally, was disappointed with Russia’s response during the Karabakh conflict of 2020-2023. As a result, Armenia has made a 180-degree shift in its foreign policy and has now turned towards the West. This political decision has left a gap in Russia’s sphere of influence in that region. Georgia, with a strong desire for integration with the West, was conditionally granted the status of an EU candidate on December 14, 2023. However, in the current circumstances, Georgia can drift away from this course and fill the gap, replacing Armenia as the previous Russian ally.
Foreign Agents
On April 17, despite protests, the Georgian Parliament passed a law called the Law on Foreign Agents, which aims to increase transparency about foreign influence. In the first reading, 83 members of Parliament voted in favor of the law. This law is based on a similar law in Russia, introduced by Vladimir Putin in 2012 after mass protests in the country. The law requires any non-governmental organization or media outlet that receives more than 20% of its funding from sources located abroad to register as an institution pursuing the interests of foreign forces. Failure to register could result in criminal liability.
The Georgian applicants of this decree provided an example of seven anonymous non-governmental organizations that allegedly did not report the origin of over 80% of the funds they spent in recent years. The new act makes it mandatory for NGOs to submit an annual financial declaration. This law allows the Ministry of Justice to constantly check non-governmental organizations and the media to identify any organization that may be pursuing the interests of a foreign state.
Various representatives from the West, including US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and EU Commissioner for Neighborhood Oliver Varhelyi, criticized the new law as contrary to the principles of democracy and freedom of speech. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, stated that the proposed solutions starkly contrast Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and distance Tbilisi from the European Union.
In an interview for the BBC, the President of Georgia, Salome Zourabishvili, expressed a similar opinion, calling the project a direct provocation against the country’s integration with the EU. Zurabishvili has announced that she will veto an upcoming bill. However, the Georgian Dream party, which holds a majority in the Georgian Parliament, may reject the President’s objections. Despite protests involving thousands of people in various Georgian cities lasting for days recently, the ruling party is likely to reject the veto.
In March 2023, the Georgian government presented a proposal for a “Russian law” nearly identical to the current one. However, due to strong public opposition, the Parliament retracted the law and vowed not to reintroduce it. It’s unclear why they are bringing it back for approval.
The foremost reason must be the upcoming parliamentary elections. The elections are scheduled for October, and Georgian Dream, which has been in power for three terms, is eager to secure another victory.
Let’s have a closer look at the Georgian Dream party. In 2011, a businessman and oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili, founded an organization. Ivanishvili had previously made a fortune from business dealings with Russia and obtained Russian citizenship. However, he gave it up later upon returning to Georgia. In 2012, Ivanishvili’s organization removed the United National Movement, the ruling political party led by President Michael Saakashvili, from power. It was due to accusations that the party had lost the war with Russia in 2008, resulting in the loss of two Georgian regions, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as violating democratic standards, such as freedom of speech.
Ivanishvili left the political stage after serving as Prime Minister and party leader. However, in a surprising turn of events, he returned to lead the Georgian Dream party at the end of 2023. The party has a unique stance, advocating for pro-Western aspirations while promoting friendly neutrality towards Russia and its actions in Ukraine.
Tbilisi has chosen not to participate in the anti-Russian sanctions and refrains from referring to the Russian aggression against Ukraine as a war. However, this strategy of maintaining neutrality has become unpopular among Georgians, as over 80 percent of them support integration with Europe. Some recent polls indicate that the opposition parties have a chance to win the upcoming election.
Meanwhile, adopting the Foreign Agents Law would allow the authorities to limit the financing of media and non-governmental organizations supporting the opposition. This move would increase the chances of Georgian Dream winning the election and marginalize its opponents. It remains to be seen if Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream will take this risk and bet everything on one card.
Dugin, Lavrov and Peskov are happy
The Act “On Transparency of Foreign Influences” is set for its third reading on May 17. The head of the government, Irakli Kobachidze, has already announced that it will be adopted. He stated that Western politicians’ statements and appeals to discourage work on the project have not been convincing.
Perhaps the voices from Moscow proved more convincing. The act was praised by Kremlin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and one of the leading ideologists of Putin’s Russia, Aleksandr Dugin, who believes that “Georgia is on the right track.”
The street protests in Georgia have been ongoing for several days, and it remains unclear where this situation will lead. Georgian society will not give up easily and may keep going. We should remember the outcome of Ukraine’s sudden withdrawal from its pro-Western course, which led to the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. This uprising resulted in the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who fled to Russia. Unfortunately, Ukraine is still paying a high price for its attempts to break away from Russian hegemony.
However, Former Russian President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who is now Vice-Chairman of the Security Council, has accused the United States of being behind the protests in Georgia. He believes the protesters are seeking to overthrow the authorities opposed to the West.
– You can see an experienced, well-known Hollywood handprint at the rallies – says Medvedev.
What can happen to Georgia next?
Similar accusations were made against the participants of the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity. However, due to financial reasons, Moscow cannot afford to repeat the Ukrainian scenario in the South Caucasus.
The Georgian government has been seen as a leading force in the region’s Euro-Atlantic efforts. However, let’s recall that there is a danger that Georgia may become the Kremlin’s new regional ally, replacing Armenia. Despite this potential threat, the people of Georgia can stop it by remaining steadfast in their opposition to such a development.
Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
