Lukashenka is seeking support from Moscow, while Central Asia is leaning toward China for assistance and economic cooperation

The leaders of Central Asian republics favor China, while Lukashenka is still loyal to Putin. The Belarusian dictator recently visited Moscow to negotiate and stop rumors and speculations about the need to choose his successor.

A day before the summit, Alyaksandr Lukashenka flew to Moscow to attend the Eurasian Economic Forum and meet with Putin. The two dictators have been facing some difficulties since their previous meeting. Putin experienced a humiliating invasion in Russia’s Belgorod region. The Kremlin is also not finding success in international politics. China, considered a partner and ally, is taking advantage of Russia’s vulnerability and establishing a competitive system of alliances in post-Soviet Central Asia. There are also dissatisfactions concerning the internal policy, particularly regarding the Kremlin’s handling of the war against Ukraine. The increasingly powerful radicals, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, have been highly critical of how the war is being waged.

Last month, on May 9, Lukashenka returned from a low-scale Victory Day celebration in Moscow. He had fallen sick, leading to speculation about the end of his rule. One of the most concerning assertions for Lukashenka was who his potential replacement might be. The recent mysterious illness of the dictator has made the Belarusians and the world realize that Lukashenka’s reign is not permanent. Prior to departing for the Eurasian Economic Forum in Moscow, he stated that he was in good health and warned that his supremacy would have long-lasting consequences for everyone. However, this should not be taken as an inevitable fact. What is certain is that Putin has been struggling with him during the summit because both dictators are trying to bargain for something to help each other in a crisis.

Two countries, one state

The President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, present at the Eurasian Forum in Moscow, was bluntly frank in his view. According to him, there is a specific issue with how the Union of Belarus and Russia operates within the Eurasian Economic Union, which his country is also a part of.

– Two countries, one state with one political, legal, military, economic, monetary, cultural, and social space, with one federal government and parliament. I’m sorry, but even nuclear weapons are now divided between the two nations, noted the President of Kazakhstan.

The criticism was directed towards the close integration model between Belarus and Russia, which Putin and Lukashenka pushed for. This type of structural body was considered too restrictive compared to the more flexible structures that integrate Russia’s other allies and satellite countries. Moscow’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus was also criticized.

On the other hand, Kazakhstan and the entire Central Asia are lining toward tightening economic ties with China quickly. Recently, at the China-Central Asia Summit in Xian, agreements were made regarding the Southern rail branch of the New Silk Road. This railway route, backed by substantial Chinese investment, will pass through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and extend to Turkmenistan, Iran, and Turkey before reaching Europe. It will considerably reduce transport time from China to Europe by up to 8 days, giving China an alternative overland trade route that isn’t dependent on the one through Russia. In Xian, China offered Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan cooperation in the defense sector, which could begin a military alliance. During his speech at the Eurasian Forum in Moscow, Xi Jinping discussed the expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative, also known as the New Silk Road, and emphasized the importance of investing in European and Asian countries to build a “road of happiness.” Despite speaking only through an online connection, Xi Jinping appeared more credible than Putin when discussing the concept of building a multipolar world. Jinping and Putin share the same stance on the matter, but Jinping has more persuasive arguments since he has the resources to implement these ideas, unlike Putin. 

Clearly, China is gaining more influence in Central Asia, while Russia is losing ground. The President of Kazakhstan recently spoke out against Russia’s integration model and alliance system, which emphasizes this power shift. This transition is because the Central Asian republics now have other options besides Russia. China is very active in the region. Furthermore, it is necessary to note that the West is taking action to address this situation and not simply sit on its hands. The current state of affairs is due to Russia’s declining power and the aftermath of its invasion of Ukraine. In times of crisis in Russia’s relations with the West, Moscow often looked towards the East to make up for any shortcomings in its efforts to expand toward the West. Nonetheless, Russia now faces a formidable rival in the East, leaving Belarus as Putin’s only ally option.

Proximity to Putin

The integration of Belarus and Russia has a complex history, characterized by intense negotiations between two autocrats. Both leaders are focused on navigating challenging times rather than pursuing transition. Putin’s attempt to invade Ukraine was unsuccessful and did not produce immediate results or achieve its intended goals. Putin’s army remains stuck in Bakhmut and anxiously awaits a counter-offensive from Ukraine. Meanwhile, there are reports of military sabotage groups entering the Russian border areas from Ukrainian territory. There are groups of individuals who identify themselves as the Russians and are presently fighting against Putin’s regime to liberate Russia. Lukashenka has been attempting to align closely with Moscow throughout the conflict, yet he is unwilling and unable to place the Belarusian troops under the Russian command and its disposal. He chooses to refrain from sending his military to Ukraine while also being worried about the war spreading to Belarus. Therefore, he maintains diplomatic channels of communication with Kyiv. He is reinforcing the border with Ukraine as a precautionary measure. Lukashenka also intends to establish a military levy in mass in Belarus in case of war. The main issue at hand is the Belarusian leader’s relationship with Russia. While he remains loyal to Putin, he also harbors fear towards him. The Belarusian dictator has not received well the recent statement made by Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

– The neighboring country, Belarus, is our partner, ally, and brotherly nation. Of course, Russia is liable for ensuring the security of Belarus, and we will protect it from any threat, Peskov said.

The declaration was a response to an interview with Waldemar Skrzypczak, a former Polish General and Commander, who suggested supporting the anti-regime uprising of Belarusians when it occurs. Speculations about a potential revolt, Russian intervention, and brotherly assistance in Belarus must make Lukashenka uneasy and freeze the blood in his veins. Peskov’s view implies that the Kremlin doubts his ability to protect its power within Belarus. The vision of Russian intervention in defense of the Belarusian government is an alternative for Lukashenka to lose authority. However, it’s important to note that Lukashenka initially made these suggestions before traveling to Moscow. It adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

– Do you remember Russia was ready to give us up to USD 1.5 billion? I am sure they will not withdraw if they have not yet credited us with this sum, said Lukashenka in May during the visit of the Belarusian Ambassador in Moscow.

The leader of Belarus is seeking financial assistance and hoping to secure preferential treatment for Belarusian goods in the Russian market. Recently, Lukashenka estimated the price and stated the conditions for his commitment to Putin. Additionally, he aims to increase Belarus’ share in the market by replacing Western imports that have been affected by sanctions. The Russian army has received substantial assistance, including ammunition and materials obtained from Belarusian arsenals and access to army bases. This aid has led to heightened tension along the borders of Belarus with Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine.

– Russia should be active. Despite what the Western media may say, Russia has taken a risk by challenging the unipolar world and is leading the way in these processes. Belarus is in close proximity to Russia, said the Belarusian dictator in Moscow.

In Moscow, the Belarusian satrap once again demonstrated his dedication to Putin. He then returned to Minsk to find a way to carry on his monkey business. To minimize what he gives to Moscow and maximize his gains. Despite the shift of other Asian partners, Putin must continue to support Belarus’, his only Euro -ally. The recent meeting of Eurasian leaders in Moscow was impacted by China’s increasing influence and Russia’s declining popularity due to their involvement in the war. Lukashenka desperately tries to maintain his authoritarian power while navigating complex political processes. Despite Belarus’s proximity to Russia, Lukashenka perfectly mastered the “long-distance” political relationship with Moscow.

Michał Kacewicz/belsat.eu

Translated by PEV.