Recently, the sixth convoy of the Wagner Group arrived in Belarus. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s airplane landed near Minsk. It seems clear that disgraced rebels are regrouping, but as of now, there are only a few of them on Belarusian territory, and it is unlikely that many more will arrive.
Specific individuals use the Wagner Group’s relocation story to spread fear and ignite controversy. Conspiracy theorists and those who enjoy scary stories have emerged, predicting various scenarios. Some believe that Prigozhin’s men will launch a new campaign against Moscow or attack Ukraine from the north, while others speculate about an attack on the Suwałki Isthmus, known as “NATO’s Achilles heel.” However, some believe Alyaksandr Lukashenka will transform the Wagnerians into janissaries who can defend against the Kalinouski Regiment if necessary.
Although all trials are ongoing, the Kremlin is crafting its narrative surrounding Prigozhin and the Wagnerites. One meeting between Vladimir Putin and former Kremlin putschists is worth a lot! Nevertheless, many of these versions are falling apart.
“Bukhanka” and “Pazik” with the Wagner men are going to the camp
The sixth column of Wagner, spotted in Belarus a few days ago, comprises around 80 cars and stretches for five kilometers. While this may seem impressive, those with experience note that the average vehicle can only accommodate two people, with the rest of the space filled with various items. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, around 500-700 mercenaries have arrived in Belarus. Even if another convoy of newcomers arrives near Osipovichi, it’s unlikely that more than a thousand have come thus far.
It is unlikely that this number will increase significantly over time. This move may be coming to a close. The mercenaries have announced that their base in Krasnodar Krai will be shut down on July 30th.
Let’s do some simple math. Experts believe that around 5-7 thousand mercenaries participated in the “quasi-coup.” Some may have accepted Putin’s offer to sign a contract with the Russian army or return to their families. Only the most stubborn may try to move to Belarus, where the outlook is uncertain.
Additionally, they have been disarmed. The convoys that entered the ally’s territory comprised old vehicles such as pickup trucks, “Bukhanka” minibusses, and “Pazik” buses. Serious weapons like tanks, rocket launchers, and air defense systems were taken away from the former rebels.
The Suwalki Isthmus is too much
Therefore, the Wagnerians in Belarus cannot form a strike group that poses a significant threat to Ukraine, Poland, or Lithuania. It is due to limited numbers and weaponry.
A Russian parliamentarian Andrei Kartapolov recently threatened his opponents, claiming that the “fist of Wagner from Belarus will penetrate the Suwalki Isthmus soon.” However, this is an empty threat. In order to achieve this, the Russian military would have to deploy a substantial amount of forces, with potential support from Belarus, specifically the Hrodna region. It needs to be clarified how Sergei Shoigu, a known adversary of Yevgeny Prigozhin, would acquire the necessary troops, weapons, and ammunition for this mission. Additionally, it would only make sense for Russia to attempt to break through the Isthmus if it were part of a more significant conflict, such as an effort to occupy the Baltic States. Despite the Kremlin’s unpredictable tendencies, it’s unlikely that they possess the bravery or resources to undertake such a maneuver at this juncture.
It is indefensible to speculate that Prigozhin’s eagles will attempt to retake Moscow. Despite their criticisms of the Russian Tsar’s perceived weakness during the Troubles, he wisely decided to neutralize the insidious dragon. While Putin is pressuring Prigozhin due to his suspected involvement in secretive matters that benefit the Kremlin, these cases cannot be resolved immediately. However, it is evident that Prigozhin’s business empire, which includes a private military company, is currently being dismantled or confiscated.
Additionally, Alyaksandr Lukashenka is not foolish enough to support a new unsuccessful rebellion by incomplete rebels against Moscow before it starts. Furthermore, he has no interest in launching an offensive against Ukraine or attacking NATO within its borders. It is because he would face significant consequences in any of these scenarios.
Although Lukashenka and Putin share many similarities as autocrats, there is a fundamental difference between them. While expressing sympathy towards Moscow in his anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western rhetoric, Lukashenka, the “Little Brother,” is not fixated on achieving imperial greatness. Instead, his ambition is to govern Belarus, a country of considerable size by European standards, for the remainder of his life. He seeks to maintain complete control and avoid any ongoing Russian turmoil if external enemies do not interfere.
Lukashenka does not assert his claim on Vilnius or Bialystok as historically belonging to his country. However, he is fearful of NATO and holds a belief that they are plotting against him. Their goal is to overthrow him. Due to this fear, he threatens his adversaries with a nuclear truncheon.
The Wagnerians are not at risk. He also fears them and will not enlist them as his janissaries. He is currently contemplating what actions to take regarding them.
The Belarusian ruler turns his country into a scarecrow for Europe
The guests are currently staying in a tent camp that was likely set up quickly near Osipovichi, which is approximately 90 kilometers away from Minsk. However, it needs to be explained how long they can stay in this arrangement as wintering in tents is a challenging experience. In contrast, Africa offers much warmer climates and potentially higher earnings for the Wagnerians compared to what the Belarusian Ministry of Defense can provide.
Lukashenka is not keen on having a large group of mercenaries stationed in one place for a long time. He fears they may cause trouble. The mercenaries may scatter throughout the region if they do not rebel against the local Tsar authority. However, the Belarusians are already anxious due to the nomadic group’s reputation.
According to his statement, the commander-in-chief of Belarus plans to deploy the Wagnerians as military instructors to various units, offering them a modest salary. Additionally, the possibility of legalizing the presence of Wagnerians in Belarus, as promised by Lukashenka to Prigozhin, should be considered.
Regardless of any decree or law that may be passed, it would essentially legalize an organization that is classified as either a terrorist or criminal entity in the West. Even Putin distanced himself from the Wagnerians by stating they do not legally exist. If Lukashenka involves himself in this conflict, attempting to pose as a mediator of Russian unrest, he will be responsible for cleaning up the aftermath.
At present, neighboring countries Poland and Lithuania are taking advantage of the situation surrounding Belarus and the Wagnerian move to gain support from NATO pragmatically. It has led to potential interest in fueling the perceived threat by EU capitals such as Warsaw and Vilnius. As a result, Belarus is becoming increasingly isolated, with Lukashenka being blamed for turning a peaceful population into a perceived threat, a bogeyman for Europe.
The Wagner Group conspiracy may seem exciting for experts to speculate, but it’s important not to jump to unnecessary conclusions. While there is always room for unexpected developments, the Kremlin’s recent behavior has made one thing clear: a straightforward judgment is becoming increasingly evident: Putin sold toxic assets to his “Little Brother.”
Alaksandr Kłaskouski/vot-tak.tv/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV.
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
