'If West started financing Belarus, Lukashenka would soon become anti-Russian' - expert
On Wednesday U.S. President Barack Obama extended sanctions against Belarusian top officials for one more year. Belsat.eu asked political analyst Andrei Suzdaltsev whether this decision may do any harm to the Belarusian authorities.
Why has the U.S. leader extended the sanctions in spite of quasi-warming of EU-Belarus relations? Was this decision predictable?
Yes, absolutely. The parties expect one another to make a first step. It is clear that Belarus is waiting any breakup in the visa issue, while the EU and the U.S. hope that Belarus resolves the situation of political prisoners. The question is symbolic, but it involves real people. If Belarus releases political prisoners, it will be a concession, but such concessions are the Belarusian authoritarian regime such concessions are deathlike.
According to the expert, the Belarusian side is now playing a victim side saying it needs the West to against Russia…
During the [latest EaP] summit, Belarus reiterated that it was under the Kremlin’s pressure, and that it had to take such decisions due to the fact. However, there is no pressure. Belarus has made it clear: ‘Accept us just the way we are!’ Lukashenka is on a razor’s edge. He is trying to serve two masters, but the gulf between them is too wide.
Will the extension of sanctions result in the deterioration of the economic situation in the country?
The sanctions will not affect the Belarusian economy at all. They have cosmetic effect. Extending sanctions will never scare Lukashenko until they touch the most important field, i.e. the Belarusian market of fertilizers and oil refinery market. The only thing that irritates the Belarusian elite the most is visa restrictions.
Will Obama’s have any influence on European officials? Will they also take more stringent measures against Belarus?
It’s just a question of money. Lukashenka’s regime has never been and is not able to make money. It is clear that Belarus would like to obtain financial resources from the West – at least, after the Greek model. If the Belarusian authorities received such funding, Minsk would immediately become anti-Russian, there would be portraits of [opposition politicial] Paznyak everywhere and Lukashenka would call to destroy the Kremlin. Then the hign noon of the Belarusian nationalism would start.
