The French elite remains split on the issue of delivering modern warships to Moscow even after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the flare up of hostilities in Donbas. However, the French government seems to have taken the final decision by now: Russia will not get assault ships. But the negotiations aimed to determine the conditions of breach of contract may last for many months.
The French government circles were traditionally divided into two groups: those with a pragmatic, almost indifferent attitude to the policy of the Kremlin, and positive-minded ‘romantics’.
Money talks: Business above all
The first group includes those in political mainstream, i.e. the Socialist Party of president Francois Hollande and the centre-right Union of former president Sarkozy‘s Popular Movement. Not having any personal opinion on what is happening behind the eastern border of the EU, they were guided by economic interests when they were going to sell Mistrals to Russia.
They changed their mind only after the skies darkened and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia. Then the mainstream political group decided that they should not supply Russia with up-to-date helo carriers.
Communists, National Front and aristocracy
Surprisingly, the second group brings together far-right and ultra-left politicians. Both the National Front and the French Communist Party along with representatives of old French aristocracy are fans of Russia. And it is the extreme right politicians who are the most active pushers of Russian propaganda in Europe. Their involvement is driven by Russia’s sponsorship: the kremlin allocated big loans to the party of Marine Le Pen.
In their turn, French aristocrats play an important role in big companies’ cooperating with Russia. For example, Christophe de Margerie, a former CEO of French oil giant Total, who blasted the introduction of sanctions against Russia. He died at Moscow’s Vnukovo airport in October last year, when his private jet collided on the runway with a snow plough, driven by a drunken employee of the airport.
Buying French helicopters in return for breach of contract with Russia?
However, it is the centrist groups in power that decided that Russia would not receive Mistrals. According to Polish media, the alleged breach of the contract with Russia may be linked with Poland’s plans to buy Caracals – military helicopters manufactured by French company Airbus. Warsaw might have put pressure on the French saying they would not opt for purchasing from Airbus if Mistrals fell into Russia’s hands. Such option might endanger the safety of the Polish Baltic Sea region, journalists suggest. In addition, the Polish government is ready to allocate $ 3 bn for buying French helicopters – it is three times more than Russia would pay for Mistrals.
Compensation
In May, the French government was trying to reach an agreement on the amount of compensation for breaking the contract with representatives of Russia. The French Ministry of Defense offered to pay € 785 mln to Rosoboroneksport, the Russian government agency for tearing up the contract by France so that Russia could be compensated for its prepay for Mistrals and the money invested in the port in Vladivostok, where the warships were to have been deployed. The Russian side, however, has estimated the losses at nearly 1.2 bn euros.
France’s reselling Mistrals to a third country remains a controversial issue. Russia is ready to agree on it only after France pays the compensation; in their turn, the French want a written permission for resale.
The statements of Russian officials, however, indicate that the matter has been already settled. Oleg Bochkaryov, Vice-head of the Russian Military and Industry Committee, said on May, 27 that Russia had already resigned from the Mistrals. But later his statement was corrected by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. As for Bochkaryov, he was seriously reprimanded for his loose tongue.
Tiny problem
The case has hardly caused a stir in France that is much more busy with domestic problems, i.e. steep unemployment, lack of real economic growth, as well as the increasing popularity of the far-right National Front.
The ermination of the contract for delivery of the Mistrals is unlikely to significantly affect the Franco-Russian relations, Le Figaro says. One should only expect a compromise between the two countries. However, it may take months.
Karol Łuczka/MS
