Belarus cashing on sanctions against Kremlin. For now


An industrial breakthrough is looming: according to the National Statistics Committee, the manufacturing sector is experiencing the greatest rise in the Belarusian industry. In January-May, its production has increased by almost 10% – engines, bearings, vehicles, wood products…

“At the moment, there are favourable world market conditions. In addition, sanctions against Russia give a free hand to Belarusian exporters,” economist Leanid Fridkin said.

Salaries at MAZ (Minsk Automobile Plant) have grown up by about a quarter if compared to the same period in 2017, the independent trade union of metalworkers reports.

This year, according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the buoyancy of the world economy will continue to grow rapidly and may be increase by more than 3% – it is less than last year, but still enough to keep prices for oil and potash up. It is also indicative of preserving Russia’s demand for Belarusian industrial goods. But Belarusian economists anticipate two dangerous tendencies. Firstly, domestic exports are growing slower than foreign markets. Belarus might be increasing the volume of foreign sales, but its competitors are quicker in it. r example, MAZ stepped up exports of trucks to Russia, but it has gone down from 4th place (2016) to the 7th in this year’s ranking of local manufacturers.

“On the Russian market, there is a significant threat [to Belarus]. As they are actively developing agriculture, the production of farm machinery and vehicles, including trucks, is also a matter of priority,” Fridkin stressed.

Many reputed organisations warn that the rapid growth of the world economy is unlikely to last more than one year, and then a period of stagnation will begin, which is another threat to Belarus. International creditors strongly recommend Minsk to get ready for this period by reducing the public debt and carrying out a large-scale privatization of state-owned enterprises which the Belarusian budget is no longer able to maintain. Meanwhile, Belarus’ national debt continues to grow, and privatization is still the exception rather than the norm.

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