Uladzimir Padhol: In 2012 Belarus will face trade wars with Russia

The new rules adopted by Custom Union will be the source of troubles for Belarusian-Russian relations. According to Belarusian political expert the main problem for president Lukashenka would be the freedom of capital flow within the new economic structure formed by Russia Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Expert says that Russia will act pragmatically – step by step in order to insure execution of newly adopted laws within Custom Union and Eurasian Union – “Russian and Kazakhs wants to take over Belarusian enterprises and buy out the apartments and real estate on secondary market. Lukashenka doesn’t want it at all – so new conflict with Moscow will emerge”

The conflict between Moscow and Minsk will reach its peak after march presidential election in Russia. “The encounter with Lukashenka starts after the Putin problematic victory in the elections. Russian president will start to express his discontent as Belarus blocks the access of Russian capital to its market”. Expert claims that Lukashenka will be forced to subordinate to the market rule – that is absolutely against his principles.

Padhol predicts that Russia will retaliate limiting access of certain Belarusian goods to the Russian market. According to him Belarus doesn’t have any potential to resist Russian demands



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