This year, the economy has ceased to fall, and next year the government plans a qualitative leap to the pre-crisis level. If this year’s gross domestic product of Belarus will grow as expected, a little more than 1%, next year it will already be more than 3%.
According to optimistic forecasts of the government, in 2018 the oil price will fall from the current $ 52 per barrel to $ 46.
The main hopes of the Economy Ministry lie with the Russian market.
Senior analyst of “Alpari” Vadzim Iosub told “Belsat” of his surprise at such hopes. According to him, the result of falling oil prices will be stagnation or recession of the Russian economy and, consequently, the Belarusian export.
Based on the optimistic outlook on the export, the authorities promise to save foreign exchange reserves of the country, the airbag for the national currency, at the current level, without taking new loans. However, such promises were circulating two years ago.
Since then, the public debt of the country increased from 40% of GDP to 50%, so experts are skeptical. Just like in the case of salary growth. The interviewed experts agree that without significant reforms of the economy productivity growth should not be expected. Thus, the planned increase of 3.5%, adjusted for inflation, next year may happen only in two ways: by increasing unemployment or dispersing inflation and devaluation processes.
Stanislau Ivashkevich, “Belsat”, photo: Janis Pipars / Anzenberger Agency / Forum