The World Bank forecasts that Belarus’ GDP will fall by 4% in 2020 due to the global economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Interfax-Zapad reports.
According to the World Bank forecast, inflation in Belarus will jump to 11.3% in 2020, from 4.7% in 2019. The fall in GDP will amount to 4%.
The bank experts expect that the Belarusian economy may come out of recession in 2021 and its growth will amount to 1%, while in 2022 — 1.2%. Inflation will slow down to 7% and 6.3%, respectively.
Also according to the World Bank forecast, Belarus’ current account deficit will rise sharply in 2020 — to 5.7% of GDP, from 1.3% of GDP in 2019. Then the current account deficit is expected to decline to 3.9% of GDP in 2021 and 3.8% of GDP in 2022.
The bank experts note that Belarus’ GDP decline is inevitable even with the resumption of oil supplies from Russia.
“The global economic downturn due to COVID-19 reduces the demand for Belarusian exports to the European Union, Russia and other countries. Even if oil supplies from Russia resume, lower oil prices will sharply reduce foreign trade revenues,” the report says.
