What will happen to Belarusian currency?

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The Belarusian ruble is the CIS champion in devaluation. According to the estimates of our channel, since the beginning of the year the Belarusian ruble has depreciated against the dollar more than other currencies in the post-Soviet space.

At the recent trading session of the Currency and Stock Exchange, the dollar rate increased by Br 183. In January, the ruble weakened by 13% to the US dollar.

The residents of Minsk have rather pessimistic predictions about the fate of the Belarusian currency.

In second place in the antiranking of the weakest CIS currencies, with a slight lag behind the Belarusian ruble is the Tajik Somoni. The Kazakhstani tenge has devalued by 7.5%. The Ukrainian hryvnia fell a percentage less. Experts explain that in part it is the foreign causes that resulted in the devaluation.

“Belarus lives on a margin, which depends on oil prices. Since the price of oil fell sharply, the margin fell accordingly …. and the purchasing power of the Russian market also deteriorated markedly,” said economic commentator Uladzimir Artsyuhin.

In December, the gold and money reserves of the country decreased by $400 million – to the lowest level since 2011. According to Artsyuhin, fear caused by such a low level provokes the currency panic among individuals and legal entities. Meanwhile, this year our country is expected to return more than three billion dollars to foreign creditors. If this amount will not be subject to refinance, a further fall of the ruble may be unpredictable.

“Everything will depend on whether we will get a loan and when, as well as oil prices, that is, foreign exchange earnings from the work of the Belarusian industry,” says Artsyuhin.

But even favorable coincidence of these reasons, according to Uladzimir Artsyuhin, will give only a temporary respite. The main reason for the devaluation is the inefficient management of the economy, through which Belarus has been losing share even in the Russian market – will continue its pressure on the trade balance and, consequently, the Belarusian ruble.

Stanislau Ivashkevich, Belsat

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