USA may change balance of power in Donbas - Ukrainian expert


The discussions about direct international military support of Ukraine to protect its territorial integrity are in progress. Could it become the reason for the escalation of the conflict? Alena Litvinava, a Belsat TV journalist, talks with Ukrainian political analyst Alexander Leonov.

The U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution urging President Barack Obama to send lethal weapons to Ukraine . How is the potential escalation of the conflict linked to Obama’s decision?

The escalation of the conflict hardly depends on this decision. Nowadays nothing can stop Russia from instigating escalation. On the other hand, U.S. ending lethal weapons to Ukraine will radically change the balance of power <…>. Therefore, it is obvious that Russia and the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk republics are getting nervous about it. Recently, there has been a major breakthrough: the United States decided to transfer to armored Humvees, mine countermeasure station and communication tools to Ukraine.

The main goal is to eliminate the technology gap between the parties. For example, in recent years, Russia annually allocated $ 90 bn for defence, Ukraine – only $1.5-2 bn.

Thus, it is clear that the Ukrainian army does not have technological capacity to fully confront the weapons delivered to separatists by Russia.

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At the same time, the war in Ukraine has been lasting for a year and it is not until now that such decision was taken. Isn’t the Ukrainian issue used in U.S. Internal political struggle?

Frankly speaking, this issue is really connected to the elections in the United States and its activation is associated with the fact that at the end of 2014 Republicans won a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In fact, they are now controlling the both houses of Congress <…> and therefore they are able impose their own agenda, including for the administration of the U.S. president.

Now we know exactly that it is Barack Obama who fails to take a final decision on supplies of lethal weapons to Ukraine as other military assistance is being provided.

The Ukrainian issue became a domestic subject in the U.S. and as I see it, a hands-off approach will not be taken due to this internal political nature. A number of harsh statements has been already made; not just Republicans, but also Democrats are in favour of strong military assistance to Ukraine and the issue of arms supplies has actually moved into the legislative sphere.

A lull at the front is accompanied with statements by both sides about the possible beginning of active combat phase. What can Russia use now as a reason for its stepping-up inthe east of Ukraine?

Unfortunately, any situation can become a reason. In January, the attack on the airport and the all-out offensive, which ended with the fighting in Debaltseve, actually happened for no apparent reason. It means that a sluggish standoff suddenly exploded and grew into a hot phase that later developed into a large-scale war. Therefore, anything may be considered as a cause.

Alena Litvinava/MS

www.belsat.eu/en/

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