U.S. intelligence: Belarus to oppose establishment of Russian military bases in 2017
Minsk will continue close security cooperation with Moscow but will probably keep opposing the establishment of Russian military bases in Belarus, U.S. intelligence community’s worldwide threat assessment says.
Russian green men in Crimea in 2014
“Rising popular discontent in Belarus will probably complicate the government’s efforts to maintain its improved relations with the United States and the EU, which are aimed at bolstering its flagging economy and preserving some diplomatic maneuvering room with Russia,” the report reads.
Russian and Ukrainian factors
The U.S. analysts believe the Belarusian authorities will be trying to separate from Russia in its diplomatic maneuvers while Russia is likely to be more assertive in global affairs, more unpredictable in its approach to the United States, and more authoritarian in its approach to domestic politics.
According to their assessment, Moscow’s strategic objectives in Ukraine—maintaining long-term influence over Kyiv and frustrating Ukraine’s attempts to integrate into Western institutions—will remain unchanged in 2017. In their opinion, Putin is likely to maintain pressure on Kyiv through multiple channels, including through Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine, where Russia arms so-called separatists. Moscow also seeks to undermine Ukraine’s fragile economic system and divided political situation to create opportunities to rebuild and consolidate Russian influence in Ukrainian decisionmaking, the document says.
Protest rally in Minsk, 25 March 2017
Moscow will also seek to exploit Europe’s fissures and growing populist sentiment in an effort to thwart EU sanctions renewal, justify or at least obfuscate Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, and weaken the attraction of Western integration for countries on Russia’s periphery, the intelligence experts warn. In particular, Russia is likely to sustain or increase its propaganda campaigns and financially and politically support populist and extremist parties to sow discord within European states and reduce popular support for the European Union.
Breather?
Russia is likely to emerge from its two-year recession in 2017, but the prospects for a strong recovery are slim. Russia is likely to achieve 1.3 percent GDP growth in 2017 and 1.7 percent in 2018, according to commercial forecasts. Putin has long sought to avoid structural reforms that would weaken his control of the country and is unlikely to implement substantial reforms before the presidential elections.
About 45% of Belarusian exports go to Russia. Thus, the country’s economic situation might be improved due to enhancing Russia’s demand for Belarusian goods (dairy products, meat products, machinery, knitwear). Thus, one can suggest that U.S. intelligence does not rule out the possibility of officials’ making concessions to save a relatively free access of Belarusian goods to the Russian Federation.
