Russia’s special forces will be allowed to take part in anti-terrorist operations in the territory of Belarus if relevant agreement is adopted. Belarus president Alyaksandr Lukashenka signed a decree that approves the draft of the agreement ‘as a basis for negotiations’.
By the moment, the draft has not been published. However, Belarusian Internet users fear that the signing of the document will open the door to the legalization of ‘little green men’.
The published decree states that the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) is authorized to conduct negotiations on the draft agreement and, if necessary, ‘make amendments that do not have a fundamental nature’. The KGB also has the right to sign the agreement if an ‘accord is reached within the approved project’.
‘They never ask for permission’
Military expert Alyaksandr Alesin believes that the green men are unlikely to arrive in Minsk because the plans to use special forces against whoever is usually kept secret. Moreover, he adds, no one will ask for permission if they want to throw spies and subversives in Belarus. In his opinion, the project may be more beneficial for Belarus itself.
“As part of an anti-territorist operation, there might be a need for equipment, information and experts of whom and which Belarus is short . Russia is richer, they have branched intelligence network, information bases and wide experience in operations, including military ones. Our capabilities are more modest. Therefore, in case of need, such opportunity to ask them to share thir experience will do no harm,” Alesin told belsat.eu.
Special services’ lobbying?
According to the director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies Arsen Sivitski, the development of this agreement is the result of lobbying activities of the Belarusian and Russian secret services who advocate a deeper military and political integration between the two countries. It is also noteworthy that it is in step with Russian military analysts’ warnings against the Western intelligence agencies which are allegedly making preparations for destabilizing the situation in Belarus in order to tear it away from Russia.
“One can state that the agreement has been drawn up in such a way so that the principle of national sovereignty of Belarus in the sphere of security could not be violated. Therefore, even in case of it being adopted, the Russian side will have to receive an official permission for sending its special forces to the territory of Belarus, i.e. the agreement hardly includes any mechanism for initiating a joint operation,” the expert told belsat.eu.
However, the problem is that the Russian side often interprets the provisions of international treaties freely if the situation requires it, Sivitski added.
“Hypothetically, such agreement may allow Russia to unilaterally take the decision to send its special forces to Belarus in case of a potential crisis, due of which, for example, the country’s military and political leaders become incapacitated. But such scenarios are practically implausible unless they are incited from outside. I do not think that now someone really believes that the Western special services are masterminding an orange revolution or a coup in Belarus. But if Russia decides to bring its military force into the territory of Belarus, it might set a number of provocative acts and false flag operations in order to justify such a step,” the expert suggests.
