Belarusian ruble has again fallen against the US dollar during tradings at the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange. Now $1 costs 18,310 rubles.
Belarusian ruble is dependent on the Russian one, which just reached the historical minimum – a dollar costs 70.5 Russian rubles.
The strength of the Russian ruble is tied to oil prices. And its price in recent days registered at the level of below $40 per barrel, disproving the previous forecasts of the Russian leadership.
Last year, Vladimir Putin said that if the oil price will fall at least to 85 dollars, the economy of the Arab countries would simply collapse.
Meanwhile, the falling oil prices is destroying the Russian economy. And this process has no end in sight, because the oil, according to most forecasts, will continue to become cheaper. This may be affected by an additional factor. At the the US Congress, leaders of the Republican and Democratic factions have agreed to abolish the ban on oil exports – for the first time since the 1973 oil crisis. Now the document is to be signed by President Barack Obama. Some experts believe that it will not have a major impact on the world market.
“Firstly, because exports will not be too large. The price of oil in the US is quite high, and it cannot compete in the European market with the Arabian supplies. And so there will be no release of additional quantities of oil to the world market,” said economist Alyaksandr Sinkevich.
However, the news from the US Congress has managed to derail the price of oil by more than 2 percent. If oil prices continue to fall, the Russian currency market may prove the most pessimistic forecasts, believes economist Sinkevich. And along with them, this scenario could be repeated in Belarus.
“If we consider the worst case scenario, when the oil costs about $20 per barrel, the Russian ruble may drop to more than 160 rubles per dollar. Accordingly, the Belarusian ruble devaluation may result in 50-100 percent drop of today’s exchange rate,” says Alyaksandr Sinkevich.
The Bank of America has already calculated that if oil prices fall in price even to $35, the rate in Russia can grow up to 94 rubles per 1 US dollar. In view of the impending denomination and the difficult situation in the domestic economy, no one is trying to predict the rate in our country.
Vital Babin, Belsat.eu
