The main threat from Russia is still the military threat, Ukraine’s president Petro Poroshenko emphasized in his annual Address to the Verkhovna Rada.
“There are no signs that Moscow is ready to leave Donbas or Crimea. And, unfortunately, there are more and more proofs of its preparation to the continental-scale offensive war,” he said.
In his opinion, it would be more appropriate to call the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad-2017 (West-2017) ‘Anti-West’.
“Under the guise of ‘strategic command and staff exercises’ the creation of new strike groups of Russian troops for the invasion of Ukraine is not ruled out. Seven thousand platforms with soldiers and technology are approaching or approached our borders. And, unfortunately, there are no guarantees that after the training all of them will come back from Belarus,” Poroshenko stressed.
According to the Ukrainian leader, in 2014, under the guise of allegedly ensuring the safety of the Olympics in Sochi, Russia launched a group to conduct a special operation to seize Crimea. In the late July 2008, “Caucasus 2008” military training was held and at that time Russian troops involved in the training attacked Georgia instead of returning to the permanent dislocation points, he said.
The Belarusian-Russian strategic army exercise Zapad 2017 scheduled for September, 14-20 is supposed to demonstrate ‘persistence in efforts to ensure security of the two brotherly nations’. Such exercises are held in Belarus and Russia interchangeably every two years. In September, there will be about 10,000 troops involved in the exercise in the Belarusian territory (7,200 – the Belarusian Armed Forces and about 3,000 – the Russian Army).
At the same time, Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite and a number of European politicians believe that the ‘West-2017’ demonstrates the preparation of Belarus and Russia to the war with the West. In mid April, Oleksandr Turchynov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, stressed that the joint military exercise might become the preparation for an assault against Ukraine in September. Belarusian democratic circles fear that Russian troops will not come back home after the war game. In turn, First Deputy Defense Minister and Chief of the General Staff Aleh Belakoneu promised that the Russian army forces would leave Belarus’ territory by 30 September.
The Belarusian National Congress (BNC) is organizing a protest rally on September 8 at 19:00 in Kastrychnitskaya Square in Minsk. The event is timed to coincide with the anniversary of the famous battle of Orsha. The participants will be protesting against ‘occupation from the inside’ and external aggression.
