Opinion. Russia keeping close eye on Lukashenka’s Viennese waltz


Will Alyaksandr Lukashenka make an official visit to Austria? The news about the invitation of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has not hit the headlines either in the EU or Russia. But in fact, it may well be indicative of a real change in Europe’s policy towards Minsk.

Moreover, Kurz called Lukashenka’s rapprochement with the European Union along with maintaining good relations with Russia a ‘model for other countries in the region’. The fact that the statement was made in the course of the Ukrainian election campaign is also telling quite a story. It shows that there are EU countries that does not want Belarus to be a democracy like Ukraine; just the contrary, they would like Belarus to set the example of the relations with the EU and Russia.

With eye to Moscow

Until recently, Lukashenka could not count on receiving official invitations from European leaders. To be fair, top Western guests visited Belarus, but then the Belarusian leader did not have a high profile – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President Francois Hollande came to take part in the 2015 Minsk talks, Germany’s ex-Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier – in the opening of a memorial. For the first time in many years, a Western leader has arrived in Belarus to meet with Lukashenka, which must have made the Belarusian president sure that his ‘model’ works and even yields the first results.

However, it hardly matters what model of building relations with Russia and the West Lukashenka will opt for; what position will be taken in Moscow – that is the question. Alyaksandr Lukashenka has never allowed himself to go to such length that would outrage the Kremlin.

At the same time, presidents of neighbouring Ukraine dared to do so, what is more, not only pro-EU Viktor Yushchenko and Petro Poroshenko, but even Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovych.

Shifts to Russia end in Maidan

Kuchma tried to pursue the so-called multi-vector policy, but after a number of incited scandals, Moscow made Kuchma abandon it and sign an agreement on creating a single economic space with would-be members of the Eurasian Economic Union. Moreover, Viktor Yanukovych who was also ‘maintaining good relations with Moscow’ intended to sign an association agreement with the European Union. But the Kremlin took the intention as a betrayal and forced the Ukrainian president to U-turn. In both cases. the swifts to Russia ended in protesting on Maidan.

It should be noted that Alyaksandr Lukashenka has not signed any ‘revolutionary’ documents or come too close to any other state yet. He has not headed for Vienna either. But the bad news is that he has no idea about what Moscow will consider as a disloyalty act in the process of building Belarus-EU relations. Neither did Kuchma and Yanukovych.

News
Vienna yes, Warsaw unlikely: Lukashenka accepts Kurz’s invitation
2019.04.01 10:46

Vitaly Portnikov, for belsat.eu

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