Ukraine is the only partner with which NATO will hold a separate meeting at the 2016 summit in Warsaw. Political observer Raman Yakauleuski tells Belsat TV about Ukraine’s going to the West and explains why Ukrainians are anticipating Russia’s attack from the territory of Belarus.
Can any post-Soviet country become a member of NATO in the near future?
I would not use the word ‘near’, but such chance is within the realm of possibility for Georgia, Ukraine and, perhaps, Moldova. It is the aggressive policy of Putin that is pushing Ukraine to NATO. The number of NATO – and it’s no secret – is growing in Ukraine.
What was the reason for Ukraine’s and Georgia’s starting to actively cooperate with NATO in the 90s?
In the both countries, there is a change of those in power. There is a general belief that the path to Europe lies through NATO as a defense alliance as well. As a defense alliance, and not aggressive. When Putin says that one of the motives for the annexation of Crimea was a threat of NATO, he lies.
At the present day, when we see the EU facing the crisis – in the first place, I mean the recent referendum in the UK – many people are expecting much of NATO and of the Warsaw summit in particular.
This is a landmark event at which all the participants should strengthen their consolidation. European countries ought to think about a larger contribution to the common cause.
I am sure that NATO will be consolidating. Romania, which has taken the initiative of creating a Black Sea Fleet, can be an example of it. The decision on the initiative in which Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are also involved is to be approved in Warsaw.
And don’t you think that this project failed after Bulgaria had refused to participate?
I would not say so. I don’t think Bulgaria has the say here. In my opinion, the creation of the Black Sea Fleet NATO is not at all an unlikely scenario. In response to establishing ‘Putin’s line’ from Sukhumi to Kaliningrad, NATO is building up from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. In fact, Putin revived NATO, Nato was sleeping. As we remember, NATO’s response to the war in Georgia was different. The annexation of the Crimea and the Ukrainian tragedy changed the situation. One can say that Putin woke NATO up. On the one hand, it causes tension. On the other hand, the Alliance’s consciousness is rising.
What proposals will be set to Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, and what can they offer NATO? For example, Poroshenko is taking part in the summit…
Georgia and Moldova are small countries, the latter is a neutral state in accordance with its Constitution. As for Ukraine, battleworthy armed forces are being created there, because it is the unpreparedness of the Ukrainian army that led to their defeat in the war against Russia. Americans are engaged in the process, as well as British.
There is also a problem of protection of nuclear power plants in Ukraine. I believe it will be an occasion for greater cooperation with NATO in Ukraine.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko
At the Warsaw Summit systematic work within the framework of NATO is to be approved; actual financing and training of soldiers will be its basis. Georgia has already had it; despite Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia has already left the Russian orbit. By now, Russia has also lost Ukraine.
If we compare the situation in Ukraine to measles, now the country is having rash. But Ukraine has set off on the road to recovery.
Awakening of NATO makes Russia react; it promises to ‘take appropriate measures’. What might they result in?
They may lead to war. The possibility of war is perceived as a common thing in Russia.
As for Belarus, I cannot agree with some experts who state that Lukashenka keeps neutrality. It is impossible to remaine neutral at the current level of political and military union of Belarus and Russia.
At the conference in Tallinn, I acquainted myself with the report by general Clark [In 1997-2000 Wesley Clark headed the Supreme Headquarters of Allied Powers Europe and was commander of NATO forces in Kosovo]. When I asked why he was speaking about Russia and Kaliningrad but failed to even mention Belarus, he answered that NATO sees Belarus and Russia as a unified defense space. We are the hostages of Putin’s policy, it is hard to talk about neutrality.
Does it mean that Belarusians might shoot Ukrainians if a war starts?
Yes, there is such a threat. At the moment the protection of border with Ukraine is being enhanced – allegedly due to a threat of NATO. According to Lukashenka, “Belarus will be the first to face a NATO attack”. Whom was he going to fight against? War is always on his mind.
Do you agree with the opinion that Russia will be waging the conflict in Donbas to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO?
Yes, that’s its goal. But there is another : Russia may give up the two separatist enclaves to Ukraine, but only on special terms, with retaining control over them – and Ukraine will suffer.
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June 2016: Ukraine took part in the military exercise Anakonda
Talking about the Minsk agreements, I hold the opinion that everything would be solved much quicker if the 400-kilometer border between Ukraine and Russia were closed.
Being in Kyiv, I asked why they were afraid of tanks from the territory of Belarus. „You have 400 kilometers of the uncontrolled border with Russia, I said. But a colonel from the Security Council answered: „Kyiv is closer to you [Belarus].”
Briefly – what is the main aim of the summit?
According to its participants, the summit should put Russia where it belongs. They say that enough is enough! No more Russian jet fighters flying in five meters of the ships in the Baltic Sea, no more threats in the Dardanelles and so on. But what will be the response? Probably, it will be in the consolidated position. Putin will not be able to ignore it.
Interviewed by Denis Dziuba/ English version in abridged form
