Belarusian ruble in free fall

On March 18, after the trading on the Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange, the ruble fell against the dollar and the euro. The rate of the Russian currency continues to decline, too.

On March 18, the dollar rose by 7.4 kopecks (+3.13%) to 2.4413 BYN, while the euro rose by 5.05 kopecks (+1.92%) – 2.684 BYN. The Russian ruble rate fell by 3.38 kopecks (-1.06%) – 3.1913 BYN per 100 Russian rubles.

Recently, the Belarusian ruble has been reacting to the Russian currency rates. In Russia, the ruble depends on oil prices. On March 18, the Brent oil fell in price to $27.87 per barrel (as of 1 p.m. – As a result, the dollar rate rose to 79 Russian rubles during trading in Russia.

“It seems to me that the Belarusian ruble has found its minimum. The same can be said about the rate of the Russian currency, which is approaching 80 Russian rubles per dollar. Russia has already exhausted the potential, which can be obtained through devaluation to compensate for the drop in oil prices. I have calculated that if oil prices drop to $20 per barrel, the Russian ruble must devalue to 140 rubles per dollar to compensate for all the falling costs. But this scenario is extremely destructive for the country’s economy,” Valer Palkhouski, analyst of Forex, told Belsat.

The economist believes that the authorities will not allow such a fall.

“It’s better to take measures to compensate for the budget deficit and get out of the fix, for example, through the National Welfare Fund. Therefore, it seems to me that the potential at which the devaluation of the Russian ruble is possible has already been exhausted. Further, devaluation of the ruble above even 80 rubles will lead to negative consequences, other measures are needed to resolve the situation,” said Palkhouski.