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This week’s sudden arrival of Russian Defense Minister in Minsk was very revealing. Sergei Shoigu virtually presented his Belarusian counterpart with a fait accompli: the “West-2017” military drill involving fighting against NATO will be held at the Belarusian landfills, too.
Sitting it out in the negotiation trenches is not an option, you need to protect the older brother. But the head of Belarus did not meet with Sergei Shoigu, he was in the Arab tour. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are rich in oil and gas, and they also like Belarusian equipment. And it’s not MTZ tractors that they discuss.
Alyaksandr Lukashenka likes touring and gently hugging rich presidents, emirs and other heads of state. For his multi-vector politics, everyone around him is a friend, associate and business partner. If only they give him money. Even a loan would do.
“Belarus’ doors are always open for the United Arab Emirates and Dubai,” he promised.
As usual, state TV channels spoke about the great prospects and the interest that countries of the region have for the Belarusian food and woodworking industries. But it is more of a smoke screen.
Contradictions between the Sunni Arab states and Shiite Iran are getting stronger. Both Qatar and United Arab Emirates are conducting active military policy in the region. Intervention in Yemen is an example here.
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Along with quasi-wars, countries of the region are involved in modernization and are busy departing from the economy based on raw materials. Therefore, Dubai and other emirates only look like a place of luxury acquired for oil. In fact, interests of higher order are already in circulation here.
“First, it is an arm trading platform. Second, it is a place for technological exchange. And this is the place Qatar wants to come to. Therefore, the Belarus is of interest for the same reasons as before. I think it is primarily its defense industry and some products of the Belarusian military-industrial complex,” Ihar Tyshkevich, expert of the “International and Domestic Policy” program at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said.
Indirect proof: in the past, Lukashenka took his younger son Kolya along to the Emirates, and this time he only brought his oldest offspring — Viktar Lukashenka — officially an assistant to his father on national security and member of the Security Council. Unofficially, Viktar oversees the arms trade.
Belarus has already participated in gun shows in the United Arab Emirates. To enter this market, Lukashenka is ready to sell things a piece at a time — from drones to the products of the Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT).
“MZKT is a well-known supplier of weapons to the United Arab Emirates. And not all the supplies were made, so to speak, via the Belarus state budget,” Ihar Tyshkevich said.
There was a story about “haremcarriers” — chic and practical palaces on wheels, equipped according to Sharia law. But this was for fun. For war Emirs buy MZKT chassis used for rocket systems and so-called “hippos” — tractors for tanks.
“It is precisely now that the United Arab Emirates are drafting a contract for the delivery of the new tractor for their armed forces,” Arseniy Sivitski, Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies, said.
Belarus also sells complete weapons systems to Emirs. For example, here is the Belarusian-Ukrainian anti-tank missile complex “Caracal”. In general, the emirates sell not only products, but technologies as well — all at once. They can buy, for example, a plan to create High-Tech Park in Minsk.
“Most likely, these countries are interested in adopting the business model, rather than directly purchasing IT technologies in Belarus. Although it cannot be excluded,” Arseniy Sivitski stressed.
Qatar and the Emirates are interested in Belarus as a poor country with cheap but promising developments in IT, optics, gas and petrochemistry. At the same time, they have not only hydrocarbons, but also a fleet of tankers that can reach Europe. Qatari liquefied natural gas can be very useful in Belarus, says Sivitski:
“Belarus must secure a minimum supply of energy in the event of any crisis with Russia, because our partner is very unpredictable”.
Last year alone, in search of partners, Lukashenka visited Turkey, Italy and the Vatican, six Asian countries and Armenia. Also, there was a significant breakthrough in relations with the European Union and the United States.
According to unofficial sources, in late November, Lukashenka will fly to Azerbaijan possibly to agree on oil supplies through Ukraine.
What the democratic opposition has warned about, has happened. Embrace of the Russian brother is getting stifling. Therefore, Lukashenka is running away to the remote states.
Yaraslau Stseshyk/OS, Prasviet, Belsat.eu
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