The action looks phantasmagorical. Alyaksandr Lukashenka played a role in stopping Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny as it marched toward Moscow. Or at least his propaganda presents the matter with exactly this connotation: the wise Belarusian leader stopped the sudden brawl of these incomprehensible Russians.
It seems that Lukashenka has once again, paradoxically, made a fortune in a situation that only threatened him with more trouble. From a public relations perspective, he is popular and on the rise now. The dictator of Belarus has become aware that he is seen as a puppet of Vladimir Putin. However, Belarus came to the rescue of the Kremlin in a difficult situation a few days ago. The “younger brother” saved Moscow’s leader.
The moment of weakness of the Kremlin’s ruler was witnessed by everyone
In reality, the situation is complex; it is multi-layered. According to Russian Telegram channels, Alexei Dyumin, the governor of the Tula region and former bodyguard of Putin, may have played a significant part in talks with a rebel mercenary leader. While this has been denied officially, the Kremlin may keep certain behind-the-scenes details private. A Spokesperson for Russian President Dmitry Peskov has stated that Moscow values the efforts of Lukashenka in resolving the conflict.
How far it has been settled is a separate issue. We may have only seen the first act of the Ballet de la Merlaison. As mentioned by Peskov, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was supposed to have his case dismissed, will go to Belarus. It means that one can be considered a backstabbing traitor in the morning, but forgiven in the evening, despite having caused harm, such as the downing of a Russian military plane and several helicopters.
The Kremlin has once again used the Belarusian leader as a pawn to handle a difficult situation. This fact is not openly discussed, but Lukashenka is thriving in the attention. Despite feeling uneasy as a co-aggressor, he did everything in his power to position himself as a “keeper of peace” regarding Ukraine. In a surprising turn of events, he has also become a peacekeeper for Russia now. Some may say he has made a bold move. It’s understandable to request something of value from the Kremlin in return.
The entire situation is humiliating for Putin. Despite trying to downplay this moment of weakness and shame, it may have consequences in the future.
It’s not over yet. To be continued
It is still uncertain how and with whom Prigozhin will travel to Belarus. He stated that the Wagnerians will head to field camps, but the details are yet to be finalized. Regardless, the prospect of his arrival in Belarus, even with a small entourage, is concerning, given his shady and unpredictable reputation. However, some experts speculate that Prigozhin and Belarus’ leader may collaborate for a lucrative African enterprise.
However, the situation in Russia is far from over. The leader of the Wagner Group expressed strong emotions and revealed the truth about Putin’s corrupt motives, including the fabricated reasons for invading Ukraine. Notably, the Wagnerians swift a piece-of-cake operation to capture Rostov on their journey to Moscow, from which some managed to flee on private airplanes and business jets.
It’s become apparent that the Russian authorities are susceptible to pressure and vulnerable. Demonstrations in Rostov where people chanted “Wagner is power!” accurately reflect the sentiments of some residents in hinterland “Glubinka” Russia. Furthermore, certain major players are dissatisfied with the Kremlin’s current policies.
But most importantly, the former “Putin’s cook” revolt showed how rotten and corrupt Putin’s entire system is. The tremors will likely continue for a while, as there is no indication of a successful conclusion to the military operation.
Thus, the march of Prigozhin’s troops on Moscow is only a prelude to the coming internal cataclysms. The empire has already experienced political upheavals due to failed wars multiple times. Currently, there is speculation about who could be behind Prigozhin’s mutiny.
The Russian Times of Troubles may open a window of opportunity for a change in Belarus
Although the Minsk dictator may have achieved a tactical victory, his long-term prospects have not improved. The issue of how he will handle Prigozhin, who may be a Trojan Horse for his regime, remains to be seen. In the meantime, Lukashenka has secured his position by suppressing the 2020 peaceful popular uprising but has also become heavily dependent on the Kremlin. Moscow’s support is now a crucial pillar of the Belarusian regime. The second pillar of the state involves using terror to suppress political opponents. The officers, who Lukashenka referred to as “the hunks” during the violent suppression of protests, are fiercely tough and loyal to their leader only if they perceive him as strong and supported by Moscow.
The support from the Kremlin may decrease, especially if there is significant ongoing turmoil in Russia. Many of Lukashenka’s “handsome mans” will likely lose their confidence and bravery in such a scenario. It is worth noting that the behavior of Rostov’s police officers towards the Wagnerian group that entered the city through their barriers was quite telling. They greeted them and let them pass without any resistance. For Lukashenka and his “agro-elite,” the arrival of Kalinouski’s Regiment and other paramilitary anti-regime units would be a nightmare.
Although some opposition Belarusians hope for immediate change, it would be naive to expect it to happen tomorrow. We must avoid overconfidence and the resulting disappointment. Currently, both Putin and Lukashenka maintain a certain level of security. However, regimes that challenge democratic values are historically bound to fail. However, if weakened Moscow stops having Lukashenka’s back, it could open a window of opportunity for a change in Belarus.
Alaksandr Kłaskouski for vot-tak.tv/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV.
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
