Speculations about a potential new war in the Balkans are resurfacing due to recent statements by President Milorad Dodik regarding Republika Srpska’s in Bosnia desire to leave Bosnia and Herzegovina. Is there a real danger of such an outcome?
Bosnia and Herzegovina is just one part of the issue. Many commentators point out the Serbian authorities’ alignment with Russia and China and the ongoing tensions surrounding Kosovo. At times, Belgrade has hinted at a forceful resolution, claiming that the rights of Serbs living in Kosovo are being violated. Such a situation leads to a crisis, followed by EU diplomacy stepping in, and then the tension eases again.
Milorad Dodik’s recent separatist statements are directly related to the Bosniaks’ desire to recognize the 1995 Srebrenica massacre as genocide. Dodik frequently makes such statements whenever he gets the chance. It’s worth noting that just before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the authorities of Republika Srpska in Bosnia initiated the process of departing from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The situation back then was more complicated than it is today. The West was in a sleeping mode, and it was unclear how it would react to challenges in the international arena. By helping Ukraine stabilize, the Bosnian Serbs postponed the idea of leaving Bosnia. As the war continued, Dodik returned to separatist rhetoric, especially as the US hesitated recently. For instance, he stated that if Donald Trump became the President of the USA, border changes in the Balkans would be possible.
There were reports of Russian training camps being established in Republika Srpska, along with worries about Russian propaganda media operating in the region raised by the EU and the Bosnians.
These are real problems. Russia and China’s activities in Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia are concerning. Serbs are heavily influenced by propaganda without much resistance.
However, these events do not necessarily indicate that there will be a war. The West is currently more watchful and has stronger arguments. The current situation is not the same as before the full-scale war in Ukraine, and it is significantly different from the troubles during the wars of the 1990s. At that time, the West had little interest in the former Yugoslavia, so it took years before any intervention occurred.
Today, the West has business in the Balkans. Some of the countries in this region already belong to the EU and even NATO. The goal is to expand the EU to include countries that have yet to join, such as Serbia or Bosnia. Sarajevo was recently invited to start accession negotiations, and Belgrade has been in talks about accession for many years. Despite anti-Western rhetoric, Serbia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina (including Republika Srpska) rely on European funds rather than Chinese and Russian ones.
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Serbia during his recent European trip. It is speculated that his visit was mainly due to his belief that Serbia would eventually join the EU, and he wanted to establish Chinese influence in the country. This situation differs from Russia’s approach. Russia has been interested in opening up another front in the hybrid fight against the West in the Balkans for quite some time. The rhetoric of the Serbian authorities, and to an even greater extent, the Republika Srpska in Bosnia, suggests that the Serbs may also share this ambition. There appears to be a tight collaboration between the Serbian secret services and Russia. These close ties do exist, but even from the perspective of the most nationalistic Serbs, its purpose is not to start a war. If you’re unsure what it’s about, it’s primarily about money. Always.
Belgrade attempts to navigate between the EU, Russia, and China to secure maximum benefits. It is not predominantly for the Serbian nation but mainly for the power and money elites. The leader treats all pro-Russian, anti-Western, nationalist rhetoric associated with the war as a means of consolidating power and isolating the opposition. The authorities in Republika Srpska, Bosnia, are pursuing similar goals but in a less sophisticated manner. Any aspirations of creating a greater Serbia will likely be realized in the distant future and through peaceful means. Therefore, the concept that Trump might intervene and provide support is unrealistic despite his various statements. It’s important to note that these aspirations center around the peaceful development of a greater Serbia rather than through military means.
Serbs may be influenced by Russian propaganda, but that doesn’t mean they want to fight, especially with NATO. The memories of the 1990s are still fresh in their minds, and Serbia is still struggling to move on from that period. Generally, the situation in the Balkans is similar to the rest of Europe. People don’t want to fight. They want to live more comfortably. In their view, Russia and China are seen as potential sources of additional revenue and leverage in negotiations with the West rather than as patrons.
The Serbs are not the Russians and have never been. Serbia, and even the Republika Srpska in Bosnia, are democratic. In Serbia itself, the recently ruling nationalist coalition won quite narrowly. Such a political bloc certainly won’t rule forever. It is what Europe is waiting for until someday, there will finally be changes in Serbia, as happened 20 years ago. For about a decade, the government was ruled by decidedly pro-Western forces.
The West, including the EU, NATO, and individual countries such as the USA, France, and Germany, has numerous tools to prevent aggression in the Balkans effectively. Military forces are stationed in Bosnia and Kosovo under the EU’s supervision and operate closely with NATO. With missiles and planes capable of reaching targets in minutes, NATO has a widespread presence. Suppose someone were to consider initiating a new conflict. In that scenario, several diplomatic channels can be utilized to prevent these individuals from starting a new war before resorting to any military ultimatums. NATO has used force in the former Yugoslavia multiple times in the past and is willing to do so again if needed. France and a few other countries are considering deploying troops in Ukraine. They also would not hesitate to intervene in the Balkans.
The Serbian elites are aware of all this. The fact that they are not preparing for any war with the West is also evidenced by their negotiations with France about the supply of Rafale aircraft. Once this agreement is finalized, it will lead to stronger connections with France. On Paris’s part, this business move is also consistent with its current active international policy. France recently signed military agreements with Armenia and Moldova and is further strengthening its relations, including military ones, with Romania. France’s willingness to show a more visible military presence in the Ukrainian region has already been noted. Paris evidently aims to compete for influence in the Balkans with China and Russia, taking advantage of the current indecision by the US and Germany. Therefore, whether Serbia will ultimately align with Russia and China is uncertain. France has become a more active player in the Balkans region, indicating that the situation is more complex than it appears at first glance.
It is unlikely that there will be a new war in the Balkans, although Russia may be anticipating it. Russia’s collaboration with the Serbs has a geopolitical significance. It is a part of the hybrid warfare with the West and is less about the economy. For the Serbs, it is primarily about money, whether from Russia, China, or Europe.
Of course, sporadic violent and destabilizing actions may occur just below the verge of armed conflict. However, each time, it only serves to pursue power and money.
Marcin Herman/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
