‘Pendulum’ policy to be used again

On April 19th, President Lukashenka made his annual address to the Parliament and the people of Belarus. His two major messages were requests to preserve the state property and to normalize the relations with the European Union. Carrying out these requests would guarantee stability in Belarus, i.e. preservation of power by Lukashenka.

His address was rather conventional – he had already made major policy statements in March, during the Council of Ministers meeting. In addition, in the Belarusian political system, the Parliament is de facto an authority which coordinates president’s policies, so Lukashenka sees no need in making policy statements or reporting about his work to the Parliament.

In this respect, Lukashenka’s statements, addressed to international guests – diplomatic corps of Russia, EU and the US – should be regarded as the most significant, ‘Solidarity with Belarus’ Information Office reports. For instance, Lukashenka has repeatedly appealed to Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov and made a frank statement about the European Union and the United States.

Message, addressed to Russia, implied that the President would not support “structural reforms”, i.e. sales of strategic state-owned enterprises to foreign investors. Instead, Lukashenka offered cooperation in terms of investment with the preservation of different ownership forms. Namely, Lukashenka straight forward called the ongoing negotiations with Russian partners about MAZ and Wheel Tractor Plant meaningless ‘small talks’.

In his logic, the best example of cooperation between the state and foreign investor was a Swiss-Belarusian joint venture producing electric trains. The authorized fund of the venture was made of 60% cash deposit by the Stadtler and 40% in kind contribution by JSC Belkommunmash, the production is organized in the leased Belkommunmash spaces, and the entire project, including tax benefits, is regulated by a special Presidential Decree No 322 of July 20th, 2012.

Referring to the EU and the U.S., the President was restrained and constructive, which implies, the resumption of a dialogue trend will be preserved. In particular, Lukashenka said that Belarus wants to have “normal and good relations” with the West and called upon the EU and the U.S. to abandon the sanctions. Lukashenka regards regional security issues as a platform for a new dialogue (transit of energy resources, fighting cross-border crimes and illegal migration).

Simultaneously, Lukashenka emphasized that the Eurasian integration project remained a priority for Belarus, and that he would not abandon this foreign policy line. Such Lukashenka’s approach is known as a ‘pendulum’ policy, which is often used by the President as the most suitable and proven tool to help keeping him at power. The upcoming presidential elections in 2015 force Lukashenka to resort to this tool once again, SBIO experts stress.

Belsat, following SBIO


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