Lukashenka wants to become Belarusian Nazarbayev, analyst says

Commenting on the statement of Alyaksandr Lukashenka to give constitutional powers to the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, political analyst Alyaksandr Klaskouski said that he, in fact, does not want to change anything.

“Lukashenka wants to leave in order to stay. Naturally, he does not want to say goodbye to power. At the same time, he understands that some changes have to be proposed,” says Klaskouski.

From what was said during the speech at the National Assembly, the following model emerges: if the Constitutional powers of the All-Belarus People’s Assembly are granted, Lukashenka considers for himself the position at the head of this extraordinary body, which will stand above all other branches of power, as a “reserve airfield” for him.

“That is, Lukashenka wants to become the Belarusian General Secretary or the Belarusian Nazarbayev, the spiritual leader of the nation, who will stand, among other things, above the new president. But so far, this is more of a Plan B for Lukashenka; he said during the speech that this is not fully decided yet. By and large, he would not like to change anything, but just rule as long as possible. But in any case he is not going to leave for good, he wants to guarantee security for himself, his family and his entourage,” says the analyst.

In addition, it will be difficult to implement this plan in today’s conditions.

“If we compare this with Nazarbayev’s option, we must admit that the situation there was different. The first president of Kazakhstan retains a high authority there; there were no such revolutionary events in Kazakhstan, so such a transit of power became possible. And in Belarus, where the tough internal political crisis is not solved, where a large part of the population wants real changes, will it be possible to conduct such a complicated operation — a referendum and granting extraordinary powers to the Assembly? That is the big question. The society is still electrified and unsatisfied, that is why having any electoral campaign for Lukashenka is like walking on a minefield,” thinks Klaskouski.