Lukashenka’s border services point weapons at Polish soldiers on the Belarusian-Polish border, shoot into the air, simulate throwing grenades and try to destroy border fences. In addition, they are trying to push real terrorists into the territory of the European Union. Should we expect armed provocations on the border between Belarus and the European Union and how will Western countries act in such a situation?
“We have information about dangerous connections and participation in illegal practices of every fourth person who has passed an in-depth inspection. Evidence shows that 10 percent of people have links to terrorist organizations, criminal offenses, human trafficking and forgery,” Polish Interior and Administration Minister Mariusz Kamiński said during October’s press conference of Defence Minister Mariusz Błaszczak.
Polish special services also found that about 20% of detained migrants have ties to the Russian Federation, lived or worked there for some time. Now the Kremlin’s involvement in Lukashenka‘s hybrid operation is beyond doubt.
Alyaksandr Azarau, former police lieutenant colonel, ByPol representative, comments:
“According to our information, it was invented by Ivan Tsertsel, who in the 90s studied in Russia at the Ryazan Military Academy and became friends there with the current generals of the FSB of the Russian Federation. And together with them he came up with this operation. But, of course, not without the consent of the dictator.”
The Ministry of National Defence of Poland also showed pictures and correspondence from the phones of migrants, which show the connections of these individuals with terrorist organizations, in particular with the “Islamic State” and the “Palestinian Islamic Jihad”. It was found that some of the migrants were involved in armed conflicts in the Middle East.
“Among the migrants, there are definitely agents and terrorists who are specially sent to the European Union to carry out the same intelligence activities. We heard from the State Border Committee that when the Russians handed over migrants to them, they said: this must pass 100%, and others… no big deal if they get detained. That is, one person had to pass, and this person looked like someone who took part in the fighting and has the skills of special forces,” Alyaksandr Azarau thinks.
According to ByPol, these schemes have been working since 2010, with the active participation of the Kremlin. Russia’s FSB recruited illegal immigrants from Eastern countries in Moscow and then took them to the border with Belarus. They were handed over to Lukashenka’s special services, which, in turn, were responsible for transferring migrants to EU countries. Previously, this was personally handled by Tsertsel’s brother, who was the commander of a separate special service of the State Border Committee. Some of the migrants waiting for the opportunity to enter the EU in Belarus are also brought from Russia.
Andrey Parotnikau, head of the Belarus Security Blog, comments:
“Next, the situation may look like this. Concentration of illegals at the border without any active action. The Polish and Lithuanian sides do not let them in there, the Belarusian – here. The weather is getting worse, the Belarusian side is importing journalists and human rights activists, who are watching all this from the Belarusian side, because special legal regimes have been introduced in neighbouring countries, restricting activities in the territories adjacent to the border.”
According to the Ministry of National Defence of Poland, more than 10,000 migrants from the Middle East and Africa, housed in various cities and towns, are already in Belarus. It does not make the locals particularly happy.
“There was a command to stop the admission of migrants to Belarus – they need to send those who have already gathered. But if all those who have gathered are sent away, and the European Union allows them to be received, all of them will be taken out, then the gateway will be opened again and new parties will be brought in,” Alyaksandr Azarau says.
And the pressure on the European Union in this direction is already underway. For example, Lukashenka’s Women’s Union addressed international human rights organizations, calling for the immediate release of illegal migrants to Poland. On September 29, a propaganda detachment from the so-called House of Representatives visited the Belarusian-Polish border. Liliya Ananich, a former information minister and now chairwoman of the Lukashenka Women’s Union, and Tengiz Dumbadze, an odious propagandist, “handed over humanitarian aid” to migrants.
“The main task is to confront the neighbouring countries with moral and ethical, political and legal choices: either you accept these illegals, especially women and children, or watch them die, and from our side it is filmed and broadcast by your own left-liberal journalists and human rights activists. As soon as the opposite side opens its border for humanitarian reasons, this trend expands exponentially,” Andrey Parotnikau is sure.
Accordingly, the main goal for Western countries now is to prevent the situation from being shifted from the political agenda to the category of ethical issues, when instead of the hybrid aggression of Lukashenka and Putin, the media rush to discuss the “miserable fate of unfortunate migrants” – as if they were captured and forcibly brought to the border of Belarus and the European Union.
Mariusz Błaszczak, Minister of National Defence of Poland:
“The materials we have presented show the challenge faced by border guards and soldiers of the Polish army, and who are really storming the Polish border. Political correctness means not talking about it, but the security of our homeland is of paramount importance to us.”
And although the voices of the left forces are increasingly heard, calling for the opening of borders for illegal migration and the actual acceptance of the terms of the self-proclaimed leader of Belarus, the West still has the political will not to succumb to dictator’s cheap provocations.
“It does not look like the West is ready to make any concessions yet. Moreover, the West understands that as soon as they give in, the size of the demands and pressure will increase on the Belarusian side. And it will be, in principle, a very bad example for the other neighbours of the European Union: that you can press, extort, blackmail and get something. Therefore, I think that the West will respond only by strengthening the border and increasing sanctions,” Andrey Parotnikau thinks.
The whole situation threatens to endanger the dictator himself. After all, what if suddenly migrants with radical views want to somehow express their dissatisfaction with the situation in which they found themselves… on the territory of Belarus?
Zmitser Mitskevich for Belsat TV news show PraSviet (World and Us), episode was aired on October 1.
Photos in collage: Serhii HudakUkrinform / ddp images / Forum; ByPol