Politicians are not listening to historians or increasingly concerned experts. They still believe it is sufficient to maintain global peace by avoiding putting yourself in a position of too much risk in case of politically poking Moscow too far.
According to the British daily The Telegraph, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was advised against pushing for Ukraine’s NATO membership this year. The United States and Germany reportedly discouraged such a move, expressing concern that any specific details revealed during the Alliance’s anniversary summit in Washington in July could provoke Russia. Therefore, the Ukrainian president is to avoid pressure on the more strident NATO members, who could, for example, demand a clear timetable for Ukraine’s accession.
I’m not sure how much truth there is in the reports from the British newspaper. We should remember that a year ago when the Alliance leaders gathered in Vilnius, they refused to invite Kyiv to full membership. The Ukrainian president called their decision unprecedented and absurd.
Nonetheless, the prohibition on the Ukrainians from using American and German long-range missiles to attack bases in Russia seems equally unprecedented and ridiculous. Great Britain has agreed to such a possibility, and President Emmanuel Macron has recently publicly supported it. However, Washington and Berlin are sticking to their opposing views. The reports from The Telegraph may be based on reliable sources. Ukraine appears to receive only vague promises from Washington, similar to those from a year ago in Vilnius.
After the Vilnius NATO Summit, analysts from the Polish Center for Eastern Studies warned that the Kremlin interpreted the lack of specific decisions on Ukraine’s membership as a sign of the effectiveness of Russia’s deterrence policy. Gen. Stanislaw Koziej of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation stated that the West is significantly blowing the opportunity to improve European security conditions out of fear of Putin.
-Starting the accession process for Ukraine (…) would be a clear signal to Russia that the door has been sealed. Ukraine is already marching to NATO, and all actions to keep it in the Russian sphere of influence have lost their meaning. Continuing the war against the Alliance candidate would pose increasing risks for Russia, prompting a different course of action: withdrawal. It would allow the West to seize the initiative in Cold War II with Russia, he argued.
Unfortunately, the reports from the British newspaper are not the only cause for concern. They are supported by worrying details such as the US-German agreement not to attack Russian territory, as mentioned earlier. Additionally, recent information shows that Sweden is halting the transfer of Gripen combat aircraft to Ukraine. Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson stated that this decision was made in response to a request from Western allies to focus solely on one fighter model, the American F-16.
I don’t have much knowledge about the military and weapons to evaluate this decision from a military standpoint. However, I know that in early March 2024, Ukrainian pilots took part in test flights on Swedish fighters. It’s expected that the first F-16s will arrive in Ukraine by summer at the earliest.
Recently, a well-known American historian who has authored numerous books on Eastern Europe and Ukraine delivered a captivating lecture. During the lecture, he proposed that we take a step back in our minds to 1938 and consider what would have happened if Czechoslovakia had decided to fight instead of giving up the Sudetenland to Germany under pressure from Western countries. According to Timothy Snyder, if the Czechoslovak army had been able to stand up to Hitler, their French and British allies would have been compelled to support Prague, and the USSR would not have attacked. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact concerned the Baltic countries and Poland. As a result, World War II would have been much shorter. Unfortunately, Czechoslovakia gave in, and a year later, their weapons were used by Nazi troops in an attack on Poland.
As Snyder explains, the current situation is similar to that in 1938, but with some key differences. The Czechs didn’t resist the Germans, and the Ukrainians chose to resist the Russians. Although some allies provided assistance, it was too limited and slow. An American historian suggests that “the extent of Russian aggression may depend on the success of Ukraine.”
– If that happens, I don’t think there will be any more wars of this type. Kyiv’s success will discourage not only Russia but also China. However, if Ukraine is defeated, the mentioned countries may consider war an appropriate foreign policy approach, Timothy Snyder writes.
The problem is that politicians are not listening to historians or increasingly concerned experts. They still believe it is sufficient to maintain global peace by avoiding putting yourself in a position of too much risk in case of politicly poking Moscow too far. They ignore the dangers, acting like a political ostrich that is burying its head in the sand, thinking it’s safe while its entire body remains exposed. They tempt fate and ask to “be placed on a spit to roast.”
Maria Przełomiec for belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
