The Russia Factor. Why we did not defeat Lukashenka

To answer the question of why we did not defeat Lukashenka in 2020, I suggest we use the method of elimination. What helps Lukashenka stay on his feet? Obviously, it is the Russian factor. It is a necessary and sufficient condition of his existence. And not only in 2020 but from the beginning of his rule.

Lukashenka relied on Russia in his election program. Lukashenka relied on the Russian Federation during falsifications in 1996, during the signing of the anti-Belarus Union State Treaty in 2000, during repressions in 2010 and terror in 2020. Russia is Lukashenka’s only source of money and power. Putin’s Russia is Lukashenka’s economic mainstay. Putin’s Russia is Lukashenka’s military support. That’s it. He does not need anything else to retain power.

Sample photo.
Photo: ASW / ArtService / Forum

When Belarusians are criticized for being unable to defeat Lukashenka’s 50,000 strongmen, I say that even one strongman would have been enough for Lukashenka to retain power. Assuming the support of Putin’s money and Putin‘s army.

That is why it is very amusing to see attempts to destroy the reputation of the national democratic forces of Belarus from the “leadership of the democratic forces betrayed the protest” position. This statement can only be true if the critics show a realistic way to achieve the goal with the resources available at the time.

NATO’s army is currently afraid to go to war with Putin. The strongest countries in the world are currently afraid to enter into an open confrontation with him, and the unarmed Belarusians are allegedly guilty of not defeating those who cannot be defeated by the AFU with the support of the EU and the USA! Tsikhanouskaya and Latushka are allegedly to blame for not throwing the people with no weapons under the Russian tanks!

Hearing this in 2021 would have been normal, but in 2022, when Putin has made it clear that anyone who wants to escape the horde’s influence will face Bucha and Mariupol. It would be difficult to imagine more blatant absurdity, but such voices can already be heard.

All this is happening in 2022, when even a grandmother in a remote village is clear what Belarus is for Putin — at least as a bridgehead for:

  • a ground attack on Ukraine;
  • the deployment and launching of missiles from formally non-controlled territories, which is much harder to respond to;
  • a nuclear threat coming from occupied territories;
  • a direct threat to Lithuania and Poland;
  • financial offshoring against sanctions.

I think we will hear more and more of the quasi-criticism involving the “why didn’t you beat Putin with your bare hands” message. There are objective reasons for this:

  • the two-year mark of rebellion is near;
  • people are tired and frustrated;
  • people are really demanding a plan and action.

A good observation in sports is: “When the team wins, the guys win; when the team loses, the coach loses.” But are we really incapable of doing anything useful without a specific directive from Tsikhanouskaya? Or isn’t our simple desire for Belarus to be free enough?

Sample photo: Belsat

Psychotherapy has a wonderful term — wishful thinking. It’s a very convenient attitude for the patient. “Vasily, why aren’t you working? – Ah, if my father were a cellist, I’d play in an orchestra”.

That’s it! It is a great way to get away from responsibility and do nothing. Inaction is justified by an insurmountable mistake in the past, the past can’t be changed, so you sit on the couch and regret the unfulfilled. This is precisely the state into which propaganda wants to plunge us.

It is much harder to admit that we did not win because the opponent is stronger. He was objectively stronger in 2020. He’s objectively stronger now. It’s hard to admit that, but let’s do it.

The unarmed Belarusians are not stronger than Russia’s army. Whatever Tsikhanouskaya, Latushka, or Babaryka call for or not, we can’t win in an open confrontation. Does this mean that we have to stop fighting? Does it mean that we have to admit defeat?

From this point of view, the fighters in the Warsaw Uprising are losers. They lost, they were killed, defeated, and they left the country. They did not account for the betrayal of the Russian army (and by the critics’ logic, they probably should have foreseen it). Their descendants won only more than half a century later.

It is not scary to lose. The scary thing is to be in the ranks of the Soviet army, silently watching from the other side of the river as the fascists slaughter the insurgents, mocking them simultaneously: “Well, where’s your plan? Why didn’t you have a plan?”

Mikhail Kirilyuk for belsat.eu

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Belsat.

 

The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.

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