Russia will cut oil supplies to Belarus due to gas debt. The amount of the oil supplied in the first quarter will be 4 million tonnes instead of the previously planned 4.5 million. Political analyst Andrei Yahorau commented on the causes and consequences of this decision.
According to the expert, the economic effect from this Moscow step will be significant, but not critical.
“There is still sufficient amount for the refineries to work with. Although this is not what Belarus is expecting. This does not allow to have an income Belarus counts on. Therefore, it will affect exports, since oil is the main export product,” said the analyst.
According to Andrei Yahorau, Russia cannot completely cut subsidies to Belarus, because then Belarus will look for ways to independent existence.
“Russia cannot allow for the independence of Belarus by cutting these resources. This is a game where you need to give something, but not as much for Belarus to grow more than necessary. It is the nuances of the game. Next, Minsk will provoke Moscow by certain symbolic steps, by behaving bluntly at the international arena, by the anti-Russian rhetoric. It will be a game of nerves,” said Andrei Yahorau.
There will be no conflict resolution through the signing of the contract, the analyst believes.
For more information on how long the play between Moscow and Minsk will continue see the “Commentary”.
