IMF not to give loan for 2015 presidential elections - experts


Minsk is unlikely to obtain new loans from the International Monetary Fund before the 2015 presidential elections, independent experts say.

At the moment the IMF mission is working in Minsk as part of annual consultations with the Belarusian authorities. A number of meetings with  the Belarusian government, the presidential administration, the National Bank, the Ministry of Economy and Finance is scheduled. Last week Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Yermalovich told reporters that the IMF mission could discuss the possibility of preparing a new credit program.

Meanwhile, in late October 2014, David Hoffman, head of the mission, said that the IMF would negotiate a new credit program with Belarus only in case of the Belarusian leadership’s readiness to take decisive steps to reform the economy.

Belarus stands a slim chance of getting money from the IMF by the end of this year, financil analyst Vadzim Iosub believes.

“Presumably, the negotiations between the Fund and the Belarusian authorities about the new loan program that would satisfy both sides, will be carried out long enough. In addition, the IMF program is likely to include very unpopular measures that can be implemented in the country only after the elections “, he says.

Aliaksandr Chubryk, director of the IPM Research Centre, shares the opinion. According to him, if, despite the elections, the government will adhere to the policy agreed with the IMF this year, the new credit program can be started as early as 2016.

“Counting on receiving money from the IMF before the elections is unrealistic,” Chubryk stressed.

According to the expert, the country’s economic policy should be consistent so that it could be supported by the IMF. “If the government declared a policy of limiting state aid, it it should stick to it in the course of the year. If the National Bank announced measures to limit money supply and inflation, such  policy should be adhered to, ” Chubryk said.

It is to be recalled that the National Bank announced limiting the growth of the money supply in the country and measures to curb inflation.

According to experts, the IMF may support these measures of the government, but it will insist on liberalisation of pricing. “In recent months, Belarus has taken a big step backwards  in terms of price liberalisation, so the fund, an apologist of free pricing, will insist on the abolition of the domestic price control,” Vadim Iosub predicts.

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