How to protect the Baltic states and Poland from the Russian attacks coming from Belarus?
This is what the puzzle during the ‘Hegemon – Baltic company’ war game was all about. It was a computer simulation of modern military conflict held in Warsaw for the first time.
It was organized jointly by two think tanks – the American Foundation ‘Potomac’ and Polish Kazimierz Pulaski Foundation. The results and conclusions of the game are kept secret. They will be given to the Polish and American leadership. Siarhiej Pieliasa from “Belsat” was the only Belarusian journalist who was at the presentation of the game. What role did it give to Belarus? What will happen to Europe if the Russians put Lukashenka out of power?
Satellite map shows Belarus and our neighbors. Red and blue flags, squares, abbreviations. It looks like a military “Hegemon” game. Western military and security experts are huddled up in front of the monitors. The main person is the retired American general Philip Breedlove. He says:
“War games are not played to win, but to learn. And I think we’ve learned a lot here”.
What do Poles and Americans know about Belarus now?
Why did Poles and Americans learn about our country in Warsaw?
The game involved only one Belarusian – Arseniy Sivitsky, Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies:
“The game showed a change of attitude towards Belarus. Usually, Belarus was treated as a satellite dependent on Russia”.
Philip Breedlove, former commander of the Allied forces in Europe:
“I learned a lot about Belarus in the course of this war game. I can tell you that this topic has been well discussed”.
“We had a great participant here, who talked to us about how Belarus may affect this scenario or how it can become a part of this,” he added.
However, Belarus has shown a stance to the conflict with Ukraine different from the Russian one. Previously, it did not recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Despite pressure from Russia, it is seeking to conduct its own foreign policy — slowly turning to the West, which is not to the liking of Moscow.
This is the scenario of the game, but in reality the West began to seriously prepare for such a development
Arseniy Sivitsky speaks:
“First, the Kremlin inspires a revolution in Belarus which results in Lukashenka being removed from power. Power comes to the hands of the political force completely loyal to the Kremli, headed by one of the Belarusian secret service generals with pro-Russian geopolitical inclination”.
The Moscow protege invites Russian troops. Kremlin starts to use Belarus for hybrid threats against Poland and the Baltic states, and later switches to military threats. Then, according to the scenario of the game, the blue side, NATO, decides to activate the fifth article and comes into conflict with the red side, which is the Russian Federation. The fighting breaks out.
Who won is not known. Official conclusions were not presented by the organizers.
Unofficially it is known that, according to the scenario, the Russians put tactical nuclear weapons into the territory of Belarus.
Philip Breedlove, former commander of the Allied forces in Europe:
“We have a war game that was not designed to give us concrete conclusions. But it gives us the boundaries that we need to consider, when we think of our power, our commitment, our equipment and how we are prepared for any such opportunities in this part of the world”.
NATO is preparing very actively
In response to the aggressive actions of Russia against Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will accommodate multinational NATO battalion by April. About four thousand soldiers in total. It is all close to Belarus.
But according to Arseniy Sivitsky, these battalions do not pose any threat to Belarus, and even more so to Russia.
Also, there is no threat coming from American armored Brigade Combat Team (ABCT). Three and a half thousand soldiers with tanks and other equipment are already in Poland. In February, a brigade of helicopters will join the troops. US forces will be divided and spread from Bulgaria to Estonia. Therefore, there is no threat for Belarus or even Russia, as the forces are incomparable.
What is the threat to Belarus?
NATO forces may trigger an inadequate response from the East, which will affect our country.
But there are still a lot of questions left. This is how the “Hegemony” was conceived by its creator Phil Petersen from the ‘Potomac’ foundation. He was quoted by a Polish organizer of the game, Zbigniew Pisarski, president of the Kazimierz Pulaski Foundation:
“The idea of the game is to leave participants with questions. So that they would ask themselves: what would I do, how will I do it. How do I respond to the challenges that we faced during the simulation?”
Belarusians are also left with such questions before another war game — “Zapad-2017” military, which will be held in September. The Warsaw-based game, however, is not only about the questions that remain. Arseniy Sivitsky commented on it:
“This is a warning to countries in the region. Not only NATO, but also Belarus and Ukraine. We see that the Russian Federation continues its aggressive course”.
This course was put in the foundation of the game, and the West is responding to it. The first drill of Poles and Americans in Zagan will start on Monday. General Breedlove has returned to the United States, where the Congress will meet with the Defense Committee. There, he could tell what he had learned about Belarus in Warsaw. And the game goes on, and the main thing is that our country was not an extra but an actor in it.
Siarhiej Pieliasa
