During the Cold War, there was no ‘neutral buffer zone’ between the socialist bloc and the North Atlantic Alliance. Will be able to remain neutral in the new cold war? Which of the two sides is actually posing a threat to Belarus – NATO or the in-your-face ally in the east?
Minsk reiterates that if something happens, they will be able to repel any external aggression. And Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka – as a rule, during his visits to Moscow – stresses that these tanks will defend not only Belarus:
“In case of a conflict, they are the first to come into battle; then units from Russia’s west will be moved up very soon.”
Belarus’ eastern ally seems to be dreaming of such a scenario – over the past years the Kremlin has significantly built up its military power in the western part of the Russian federation. Shortly before June’s military exercises with participation of NATO countries the 28th Mechanized Brigade was pointedly sent to Russia’s Bryansk which is near the Belarusian border. Is NATO, an insidious attack of which is allegedly being anticipated in Moscow and in Minsk, considering Belarus as an independent player in the new cold war?
“NATO does not perceive Belarus as a separate player. The main player for them is Russia. In fact, the confrontation of these two large blocs may draw Belarus into a war,” military observer Alyaksandr Alesin says.
However, Minsk is doing its best to avoid confrontation. In spite of promises given to the ally, Lukashenka actually said no to the deployment of a Russian air base in Belarus. Although Belarus is hardly neutral in this confrontation, but its authorities are trying to maneuver without going beyond the role of a reliable ally.
“We are talking about situational neutrality, for example, in the Ukrainian question or the recognition of the Georgian territories seized after the Russian-Georgian war. Certainly, Minsk is gaining from balancing, but there are certain red lines which it may not cross,” Dzyanis Melyantsou, a senior analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, says.
For instance, Belarus cannot quit the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) otherwise it faces stern responses the Kremlin. Even the neutral position of Minsk often get on the nerves of the Russian authorities. As a result, many Belarusians believe that it is the Alliance that is posing a military threat to Belarus. Before the NATO operation of the alliance in Serbia, the situation looked different, Mikalai Statkevich, a retired Lieutenant Colonel and former political prisoner, says.
“9% of Belarusians actually believed NATO to be a threat; while 12% were affraid of Russia. By now the situation changed dramatically – the best part of the Belarusian society has a negative attitude towards NATO,” he stresses.
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According to the recent survey by the Independent Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Studies, approximately every fifth Belarusian supports the Kremlin’s actions, the number of supporters of the Western bloc is twice as little. At that, almost sixty percent of Belarusians stands for the complete neutrality of our country. Neutrality is desirable, experts say, but in case of escalation of the conflict Belarusian authorities will not be able to shrug off their obligations of an ally, which means that Belarus should hardly expect any good news of today’s summit.
“If NATO starts to increase its military presence in the Baltic States and Poland, even on rotating basis, it will make Russia deploy more troops close to our border. In addition, Russia may force Belarus to participate in its military preparations,” Alyaksandr Alesin says.
NATO is responding to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, but Belarus might fall victim to it, because once its authorities opted for cooperation with the Kremlin. Of course, neighbors are not be chosen, but allies should be deliberately picked.
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