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Belarus’ debt for Russian gas, Russian’s reduction of oil supplies to Belarus, raising tariffs for oil transportation throyg the territory of our country, Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s sharp attacks on Moscow are signs of another round of the absolutely illogical raw conflict.
“I cannot say who is to blame – Belarus or Russia. We just have such kind of relations. Perhaps, this situation suits both the Belarusian and the Russian leadership. But when we violated the agreement and raised tariffs, such behaviour of Belarus shocked Russia. It is clear that we are defending our economic interests, but Russia has not been used to Belarus’ economic voluntarism,” Iryna Krylovich, the editor of the online publication Belrynok, says.
According to the editor, in such conflicts, it is the Belarusian leader who wins; ordinary people usually lose.
“It is rather a war game of war than a real-life war. If there were a confrontation of real economic interests and concerns, the parties would have met in court. But the technique does not change. The authorities in Russia and Belarus do not change. Lukashenka is believed to be an intuitive politician, but he does not possess the qualities of an entrepreneur. In fact, he repeatedly managed to win, but in the end we will lose. On the eve of the 2010 elections, Russia backed down on the issue of duties on cars during the signing of the Customs Code of the Customs Union, which ended in devaluation. It was a political victory, but we lost from an economic point of view,” Iryna Krylovich stressed.
In her opinion, Belarusian and Russian authorities treat their peoples as workers of their enterprises and economic policy has a situational character.
“Belarus and Russia are like representatives of local businesses. When conditions permit, each party tries to get the maximum benefit. If a situation changes, a local businessman may fire workers or sell their company. Belarus and Russia have no place to which they can drive workers, because they live in these countries. Minsk and Moscow have a very opportunistic approach. Belarus was tied to oil, and now no one knows what should be done to solve the problem. Once Lukashenka offered to dry milk, and now no one know what should be done to sell it. The lack of economic forecasting, research and business which would be able to work under real market conditions leads to a defeat,” the expert warns.
