The Center for New Ideas has voiced the results of a survey where experts gave their assessments of certain aspects relating to the socio-economic and political life of the country in the next five years. Most of these indicators show that Belarus will be degrading or be in a state of stagnation.
The index of the Belarusian future tries to give answers to how Belarus will look like in five years, what will happen to the economy, demography, education, political activity. For this purpose, activists of the Center conducted a survey of experts from 20 organizations.
GDP
Experts predict that during the next five years, the economy will grow at the rate of 1.5% to 3%, which in practice is stagnation — such growth does not compensate for losses from the economic crisis and is below the world economy growth rate.
Salaries
Between 2018 and 2022 the average salary in Belarus is likely to be $ 500-600 per month, which does not reduce our lag from Western countries.
External Debt
External debt is likely to be 70-90% of Belarus’ GDP.
Lifespan
In the next five years, the life expectancy of Belarusians will increase and will be within the limits of 75 to 80 years.
Demography
Unfortunately, an increase in the number of citizens is not to be expected, because the number of residents will probably decrease.
Gender equality
In the index, ‘gender equality’ refers to the indicator of Belarus in the Global Gender Gap Index, a study of the World Economic Forum that assesses countries on the participation of women in economics and politics, on access to education and health. According to this index, the inequality between men and women is not so great (about the same as in Lithuania or Spain). In the next five years, there are no significant changes to be expected.
Protection of minority rights
The development of the state (and society) is well reflected in the degree to which it is ready to perceive various minorities as its natural part. In the pilot issue of the index, the authors of the survey asked experts to estimate on a ten-point scale how much Belarus appreciates various small groups (people with disabilities, sexual, religious and other minorities) and whether it is worth expecting good changes. It seems that there are no changes to be expected.
belsat.eu
