Belsat ЕМ сorrespondent Mumin Shakirov interviewed Daniil Kislov, chief editor of Ferghana.ru, and asked him about Uzbekistan’s future after the presumable death of its leader Islam Karimov.
On September 1, the country celebrates Independence Day. The government canceled the concert scheduled for August 31 which president Islam Karimov was to have taken part in. There is still no official information about the death of the president of Uzbekistan. Diagnosed with a brain hemorrhage, he was hospitalized. Karimov’s younger daughter Lola refuted reports about his death.
Belsat: What do you know about his state of health?
D. K.: According to the latest updated data, he survived clinical death on Monday. Now he is receiving life-sustaining treatment.
Belsat: Who could become his successor to Karimov taking into account that there are democratic institutions in Uzvekistan, but over all these years, the power has belonged to one person.
D.K.: If the president is ill and cannot perform his duties, the chairman of the upper house of parliament temporarily acts for him – until early elections are held. There are no signs of any delegation of power, but we are absolutely sure that the president is incapacitated. At the moment, all power belongs to the Prime Minister of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyayev who appears in public, lays flowers at the celebration of Independence Day. He is highle likely to be the next president.
Belsat: Can we expect liberalization after Karimov’s era? Or vice versa – with regard to its difficult economic situation, the regime will become even more severe?
D.K.: For the recent years Uzbekistan has been a police-run state. Power will actually remain in the hands of the same group, which is backed by the National Security Service. These people are absolutely uninterested in relaxing the grip, conducting some reforms, declaring liberalization. In my opinion, the things will at least be the same as they were during Karimov’s rule. There are no grounds for social unrest or Islamic radicals’ rising. Therefore, in the near future, there will be no drastic change.
Belsat: Will Uzbekistan take a new tack in foreign policy after Karimov?
D.K.: It may become on a would-be president. There is sort of internal struggle which may be in progress between the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov. The latter is considered to be a pro-Western man, while the incumbent chairman of the government is pro-Russian. But I do not think there will be any sharp shifts.
Belsat: Is any foreign interference in Uzbek internal affairs feasible considering the fact that Tashkent is not a member either of the Customs Union or CSTO?
D.K.: I doubt there will be some strong foreign influence on taking decisions in the coming days or years in Uzbekistan – if, of course, we will not consider the fact of Russian special services’ being very close the body of the president today to be such influence. I am sure that the Kremlin is well aware of what is actually going on in Tashkent due to information from Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyayev who, according to some sources, has business and family contacts with well-known Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov.
belsat.eu
