According to forecast made by Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kabyakou, next year, the Belarusian economy will continue to grow. In the worst case, the rate will be at least 1.1%. According to the optimistic scenario, GDP growth will be three times faster than it is now.
“Improved foreign and domestic demand may provide for the 3-4% growth, but it will provide for a modest level of economic recovery and a partial compensation for the losses of the previous years,” says economic commentator Leanid Frydkin.
According to government plans, the economic growth next year will be fueled be foreign investment of 1.5 billion, an increase of labor productivity by 3% and exports – by 6%. The real incomes of the population, as a result, are to grow by 3%.
According to the National Statistics Committee of Belarus, in the last six years, Belarus has sustained the shock of de-industrialization. The number of industry employees decreased by one-sixth. Nearly 600 enterprises were closed. The share of low-tech production increased from a quarter in 2011 to more than a third of the total last year.
Investment in fixed assets — modernization of old plants and construction of new ones — have been falling for the fourth consecutive year. This means the growing technological backwardness of our country on the world level. As a result, experts explain, if the salaries are raised to the level promised next year, they will collapse as soon as oils prices stop growing.
Stanislau Ivashkevich, Usevalad Shlykau, “Belsat”, photo: Damir Sagolj / Reuters / Forum