Global economy is showing the highest growth rates of seven years. Global stock indexes rose last week to a record high in history.
In short, the West, at least temporarily, has settled its debt crisis and began to consume more. This resulted in the growth of high-tech exports from China and of raw materials from Russia and other developing countries. Thanks to the recovery of global markets, there was an increase of the Belarusian exports, too. However, the domestic economy is significantly lagging behind the world figures. In developing countries, which also include ours, the economic growth this year is expected to reach 4%.
Belarusian official statistics has stated only 1% of GDP growth for half a year, that is, within the statistical error.
The lag in economic growth means that our country continues to be squeezed from the world markets, from Russia in particular. Thus, the export of Belarusian big trucks to Russia has increased this year by half. However, in terms of its the share of the Russian market, the Minsk Automobile Plant went down from the 4th place last year to the 9th this year.
Experts explain that we are now witnessing a standard phase of the so-called business cycle. After a long recession, the economy is growing a little faster, and then, so as not to overheat, it slows down again. But a ‘slowdown’ for our neighbors threatens to become another recession for Belarus.
Stanislau Ivashkevich, Minsk, Photo: Vasily Fedosenko / Reuters / Forum