How will Iran's attack on Israel affect Ukraine and Russia? There are several different options for possible scenarios
There is much discussion and debate surrounding the recent escalation in the Middle East and its potential impact on Ukraine and Russia. Views about the events and their outcome oscillate from a global war against the Axis of Evil to only a regional incident.
The missile and drone attack on Israel by Iran on Saturday, April 14, was anticipated. However, from a military perspective, it yielded no favorable outcome for Tehran. Israel and its allies successfully intercepted most of the 300+ drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles launched by Iran. Although there are conflicting reports on whether a few hit the target, they did not cause substantial damage, such as hitting military airfields.
Moscow and Kyiv have closely monitored the events in Iran and Israel. For various reasons, they raised concerns while simultaneously giving a glimmer of hope. From a military perspective, the Russians are keen to analyze how Israel’s Iron Dome, one of the best defense systems in the world, was able to repel a massive air attack. After all, Russia is using some of Iran’s methods of attack, such as the Shahed drones.
It will also be interesting for Russia to analyze a multi-layered attack that involves deploying a fleet of drones followed by cruise and ballistic missiles. Iran used missiles and rockets built using technologies sourced from China, the former Soviet Union, and Russia, as well as some acquired from Western arms manufacturers.
Kyiv has learned some harsh lessons from the Iranian attack. Unlike Israel, Ukraine has no advanced system like the Iron Dome. Furthermore, only a limited number of Western air defense systems, such as Patriot, SAMP/T, and IRIS-T, are available in Ukraine. Also, Ukrainian missile resources are running low now.
Although the military analysis is significant, the Middle East crisis’s political implications and long-term effects are more crucial. The situation in the region is getting worse, regardless of how Israel reacts to the Iranian attack. It is the first time that Iran has openly attacked Israel on such a large scale from its territory. It is no longer a substitute for confrontations previously conducted by terrorist organizations linked to Tehran, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Also, it is not the intelligence and special operations activities that Israel often practices against Iran.
There is potential for a direct armed conflict between two regional powers with significant consequences. The conflict could still impact the allies of both nations. The outcome of such intensity could also affect the stance of major players like the USA, Europe, Russia, Arab countries, and China. Additionally, it could influence the policies of Western nations and Russia’s ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
The importance of the Middle East conflict for Ukraine
If the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates and becomes a long-term or cyclical exchange of blows, the tensions in the Middle East will have a more powerful and direct impact on Ukraine’s defense war. When the USA and Europe get involved in the Middle East conflict, it will have a noticeable effect on the situation in Ukraine and Russia. It would mean an increase in American military support for Israel.
Regardless of the current state of relations between the Joe Biden administration and the Binyamin Netanyahu government, Washington must continue supporting Israel. Failure to do so could result in a loss of influence in the Middle East and a decrease in the USA’s global importance. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, regional powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel have become more inclined to use armed forces to solve their problems and increase their interests.
Consenting to uncontrolled escalation, particularly attacks against an ally, would diminish American influence. While increased U.S. involvement in the Middle East may negatively impact support for Ukraine, this is not necessarily the case. During the Senate and Congress’s efforts to secure support for Kyiv, Democrats were able to link this aid with support for Israel and Taiwan.
Israel is positioning itself as a participant in a global confrontation with an international alliance consisting of Iran, Russia, terrorist organizations, Syria, China, North Korea, Venezuela, etc. This alliance is commonly referred to as the Axis of Evil. The Israeli government sees it as advantageous to distance itself from the negative image it gained after the violent pacification of Gaza. And the recent tragedy in which seven workers of the World Central Kitchen organization, including a volunteer from Poland, were killed by the Israeli army.
Kyiv has also promoted the idea of describing the war in Ukraine as a battle against a global alliance of autocrats. At the beginning of the year, Mykhailo Podolak, one of the advisors to the Ukrainian president, referred to this coalition as the Nefarious Axis of Evil, which consists of Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly emphasized the global aspect of the conflict with the anti-democratic alliance.
It is beneficial for both Ukraine and Israel to include both conflicts in the narrative of the global struggle of Western values against the threat from Eastern satrapies. However, Kyiv’s primary concern is whether any possible military and financial support to the Middle East would further restrict the already limited options of shipping weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
War, peace, and oil
Ukraine and Russia are both using the Iranian attack to take sides in global politics, with Russia masking its intentions with peaceful rhetoric.
-Simona, please remind me when Israel condemned at least one attack by the Kyiv regime on Russian regions. Do you remember? I can’t recall it either. However, I remember regular statements by Israeli officials supporting Zelensky’s actions, wrote Maria Zakharova, Spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, addressing her words to the Israeli Ambassador in Moscow, Simona Halaperin.
According to this narrative, Russia feels like Israel being attacked by Iran, meaning Ukraine. However, it is precisely the opposite since Russia invaded Ukraine, including with Iranian weapons. Russian propaganda cannot be expected to follow logical reasoning as it is flexible and can present a distorted reality. Moscow recently called for peace and restraint at the diplomatic level. However, The Kremlin had previously issued strong criticism against Israel after the Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus. It is worth noting that Russia and Iran have a friendly political relationship.
Vladimir Putin considers the Ayatollah regime a suitable partner because it shares the same stance against the United States. Additionally, the Iranian regime is currently facing sanctions, which has led to its isolation from the world economy. This situation has forced Iran to cooperate with countries such as Russia. The aggression against Ukraine has further strengthened the relationship between Moscow and Tehran. It has been observed that Russia is both importing and exporting weapons and military technologies to and from Iran. Specifically, Russia imports drones such as Shahid 136, 131, and other models from Iran and licenses their production under the name Geran in Russia. Additionally, they import ammunition from Iran. It is possible that the Russian military is also interested in acquiring cruise missiles and ballistic missiles from Iran.
After Iran’s recent attack on Israel, certain Russian military bloggers expressed concern that if Iran uses up all its missiles in the attack, it will not be able to supply them to Russia. Additionally, Moscow values the experience that Iran has gained over the years in acquiring technology worldwide, which has helped them circumvent sanctions. Russia is increasingly becoming isolated and facing sanctions, making it difficult to obtain components, technologies, and services legally. As a result, they have to resort to getting these items illegally or semi-legally. On the other hand, Iran is an expert in this field and has acquired South African technology to develop Shahed drones through its underground services. Russia sees Iran as a crucial ally and partner due to its expertise in obtaining necessary resources in the face of international sanctions.
Russia holds strong influence in the Near and Middle East thanks to its relationship with Iran. However, it is also interested in maintaining its ties with Israel. It is due to the numerous business and personal connections that exist between members of the Russian elite and Israel, as well as the fact that a large part of Israel’s population has Russian roots. As a result, Russia possesses the capability to wield a substantial impact on the internal politics of Israel.
The Middle East holds great political and military significance for Russia. This region is crucial for the global hydrocarbon market, and any events happening there can affect oil and gas prices. It is of paramount importance to Russia, particularly now that sanctions hinder income from raw material exports, and yet it plays a critical role in maintaining the ongoing war machine. Russia may publicly advocate for peace on the global stage, but its actions suggest otherwise. While presenting itself as a dove of peace, there are indications that its true objective is to remove the United States from the Middle East and push Western powers out of Eastern Europe. There seems to be a desire for authoritarian regimes to use military force to expand their interests.
Michał Kacewicz/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
