Expert: Russia would gain by Egyptian scenario in Belarus

Egyptian military men decided to put the country in order and arrested President Mohamed Morsi. It is an open secret that Aliaksandr Lukashenka has been in power for twenty years, and opposition activist are not able to affect it one way or the other. Should one hope for national servicemen’s initiative?

Too much difference

Military expert Aliaksandr Alesin takes a dim view of such scenario in Belarus.

‘Most of Egypt’s population is young, the country profits mainly from tourism and, as a result, there is underemployment in Egypt. Industrial development has never been on the list of priorities of both Hosni Mubarak and Moslem Brotherhood headed by Morsi,’ the expert says.

If one is not involved in touristic business, and it is difficult to find another job, there is one way for ambitious young people – serving in the army. According to Mr Alesin, Egyptian soldiery is the most authority part of the ruling elite, a kind of aristocracy. It is them who disappointed people put their hopes on.

On the contrary, Belarusians are rather aged nation, and youth do stand an opportunity to find a job, even a low-paid one. If one wants more, they go to Russia or Europe. But the essential difference is that the Belarusian army does not display any revolutionary sentiments.

‘The Belarusian army traditionally looks up to Russia, and if anything should happen Russia also will make attempts to improve the situation aiming at returning stability to the state shielding Russia in the West,’ Aliaksandr Alesin says.

What if…?

But if the regime’s multi-vector course brought the country to the point of no return what would the army do?

‘The army would also erect a provisional government to hold elections. Aiming at ovecorming the crisis such government could count on Russia’s financial backing first of all. I consider a pro-western scenario to be unreal because the army is guided by Russia, and it would restore the power with Russia’s help as well,’ he concludes. Th assistance of the eastern neighbour could lead to the integration which would exist not only on the paper, he added.


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